The statement above is usually (mis)attributed to economist John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946). Many - if not most - facts are time-boxed. A famous example is the 1609 controversy on heliocentrism: does the Earth rotate around the Sun (eg, Galileo Galilei) or vice versa (ie, the Roman Catholic Church)? Not changing your mind when the facts change, reveals the existence...
Truth
Is democracy only a democracy when your party wins?
10 Oct, 2022
The Brazilian opposition leader won the first round of the 2022 general election (ie, 48% vs 43%). However, news articles and comments are suggesting that he - and even democracy - have lost. Why? Because actual results differed from expectations. Voter polling statistics had claimed a landslide victory. The Brazilian elections are an example of two of my topics:...
Lies, damned lies, and statistics
6 Oct, 2022
On 30 September 2022, the Dutch Statistics Agency reported that the average inflation over September amounted to 17,1% (CBS). It surprised me because it didn't feel that way. The Dutch Press Agency reported that this 17,1% included the October energy rate increases (ANP). Hence, my blog title. Something similar happened over the last decade: the enormous increases...
Did China overestimate its births? Leaked data raises questions (Nikkei)
2 Oct, 2022
Nikkei Asia title: Did China overestimate its births? Leaked data raises questions Nikkei subtitle: Differences between official census, hacked information identified by scholar in U.S. By: IORI KAWATE, Nikkei staff writer Date: 25 September 2022 “BEIJING -- A trove of data obtained in a massive cybersecurity breach has raised questions as to whether the Chinese...
Preaching to the converted
30 Sep, 2022
There are three kinds of people: (1) the ones preaching tolerance, (2) the ones preaching intolerance, and (3) the ones struggling where tolerance ends and intolerance starts. In my view, groups 1+2 are false prophets (eg, my 2016 blog) because their deeds tend to be inconsistent with their words. Prior to the 2016 US elections, Trump claimed that those elections...
Why are people lying?
15 Sep, 2022
Last Saturday's blog, Men and women both lie in dating profiles, but not about the same things (Big Think), resulted in a private message. She was curious why people are lying in their dating profile because the truth will come out during the first date. I had had a similar thought but had ignored it. This topic was more difficult than I anticipated given the (very)...
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