Occam's razor is a problem-solving principle that suggests the simplest explanation for a phenomenon is usually the best one. Sherlock Holmes' principle seems (very) different: "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." (Wiki) Both principles rely on statistical probabilities. Quite often, the...
Risk-Reward
Do human options leave us a/no choice?
Recently, I was kind of invited to visit a friend. I viewed that "invitation" as an option; not as my commitment. Later, I was called and reminded of that invitation. I told that I had viewed it as an option. My friend told me that I was right about the invitation being an option (rather than a commitment) but added her/his disappointment. With hindsight, I wondered...
”This is not what we voted for”
“Billionaire hedge fund investor Bill Ackman, who endorsed President Trump last year, is offering a stark warning about the risks of the White House’s tariff plans, arguing they could cause the economy to collapse while hurting Trump supporters the most.” (the Hill, 7 April 2025) Seriously?? We did not know ?!?! His phrase is a reminder of the German saying: wir...
Ukraine negotiations a Russian victory?
The media in Russia are celebrating Trump's proposal for peace negotiations on Ukraine (eg, Newsweek, the Independent, the Moscow Times), and view this as positive and even as a victory. I suppose their view is an example of reverse psychology given the many negative comments in Europe and in Ukraine. I suppose the Russian president will fear the outcome of such...
“Accountants moeten obsessie met zekerheid loslaten”
Bovenstaande titel in een Accountancy Vanmorgen artikel pakte mijn interesse. Het bleek van mijn oud-PWN collega John van der Starre te zijn. Accountants vertonen inderdaad vaak ayatollah gedrag: kan niet, mag niet, maar ook wil niet. Zekerheid is een deel van hun geloof. Absolute zekerheid bestaat niet. Zelfs onze zon stopt uiteindelijk. Hoeveel relatieve zekerheid...
The psychology of secrets
Introduction LO: I noticed this 2024 British Psychological Society (BPS) article because I was curious about secrets, including the how, what, when, where, who and why of secrets. Actually, the introductory BPS statement feels weird: “In fact, you probably have about 13, five of which you've never told anybody else.” In my view, I have no secrets. Perhaps, my...
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