Many articles claim that the 2023 Dutch general election results fit in a European trend, and will predict other forthcoming European general elections. I doubt that. If only, given the election results in Poland and Spain. In my view, the recent Dutch election results are not similar to Hungary. Most of all, the Dutch election results are a reckoning with Mark...
GeoPolitical Futures title: What Happens If Ukraine Falls? By: George Friedman Date: 17 February 2023 "I recently wrote about Russian preparations for a major offensive in Ukraine: a pincer movement that would close Ukrainian forces in from the north and the south. There is now general discussion of such a move by Russia in the next months, albeit configured in many...
Early June 2022, I published my blog Media = virus, which was still mostly about Covid-19. For two years, the media played played a very divisive role in society. Governments adopting a macro view were criticized (eg, Sweden). Every government attempt to moderate restrictions was ridiculed. Cartoon by Garrick Tremain (eg, source) The media has learned from this but...
In 2022, several countries are starting up coal-fired power stations due to the decreasing export of Russian gas and despite the 2019 Urgenda verdict. That verdict ignored geopolitical tensions and viewed climate change as a national issue. Hence, was the Urgenda verdict a miscarriage of justice? It’s an example of "what can go wrong, will go wrong", similar to...
GeoPolitical Futures title: The Ukraine War, Redefined By: George Friedman Date: 26 April 2022 “The war in Ukraine began under a faulty assumption shared by many, including the United States, that if Russia invaded, it would defeat Ukraine, and it would do so quickly. The Russians deployed their forces carelessly, without much regard for the Ukrainians. When the...
GeoPolitical Futures title: The World and a Small War By: George Friedman Date: 19 April 2022 "No war is small when you are living in it, but the world is large, and large wars are rare. At the same time, wars reverberate in unexpected ways. A small war here might make another war elsewhere deadlier, or it might help prevent a war elsewhere. No war can be understood...
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