18 Apr, 2025
Afgelopen dinsdag las ik een vreemd AD artikel: "Gelekt document onthult ultiem doel handelsoorlog Trump: ‘EU dwingen te kiezen tussen VS en China’. Ik heb moeite om dit te geloven omdat de vraag uit Europa vooral gaat om de levering van Amerikaanse (financiële) diensten, alsmede om Chinese goederen. De oorzaak is vrij simpel: kwaliteit versus kwantiteit. Amerika...
16 Apr, 2025
Recently, I heard Trump (on TV) warning Europe and China about their (future) economic cooperation. That is quite ironic because he clearly prefers competition over cooperation. I suppose he also “forgot” about the ancient proverb: The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Nevertheless, recent European (and Chinese) communications do indeed suggest the possibility of...
15 Apr, 2025
Intro LO: The world has long ignored that USA is semi bankrupt (eg, Debt to GDP ratio, annual budget deficits, trade imbalances). However, the World kept financing U.S. debt (eg, buying U.S. treasuries, US$). On 17 January 2025, the Congressional Budget Office issued a stark warning: “In 2035, the adjusted deficit equals 6.1 percent of GDP—significantly more than...
9 Apr, 2025
“Billionaire hedge fund investor Bill Ackman, who endorsed President Trump last year, is offering a stark warning about the risks of the White House’s tariff plans, arguing they could cause the economy to collapse while hurting Trump supporters the most.” (the Hill, 7 April 2025) Seriously?? We did not know ?!?! His phrase is a reminder of the German saying: wir...
7 Apr, 2025
Recently, I noticed a very intriguing question: Will the world keep buying US Treasuries? (eg, PS-2025, State Street-2024). Following Trump-2025, I actually doubt that - a lot. For early indications, see this recent WSJ article: “Trump’s Tariffs Were Supposed to Boost the Dollar. Why the Opposite Happened. Worries that long-term U.S. growth will fade could matter...
2 Apr, 2025
Recently, Trump announced a 25% (import) tariff on foreign-made autos and light trucks. Trump expects this will result in over $100 billion of new annual tax revenues (eg, AP News, Nikkei, National Review). What about the impact of price elasticity on American demand? Currently, this tariff on cars is 2.5% on passenger vehicles, and 25% on pickup trucks (Nikkei...
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