For long, I wondered why the ebola virus is even active in Africa. The abundance of ultraviolet (sun) light should kill any virus. A lack of ultraviolet sunlight allows for seasonal diseases (eg, influenza).
However, my assumptions were wrong: the ebola virus does not travel by air but through bodily fluids (eg, source). Bodily fluids and ultraviolet sunlight hardly happen simultaneously (eg, sex).
The main characteristics of viruses are:
- transmission (eg, air, water, bodily fluids);
- asymptomatic (infection has few symptoms) versus symptomatic virus carriers (infection = sickness);
- impact (eg, mortality).
From a risk management perspective, the differences are as follows:
- viruses travelling by air have a near 100% transmission;
- viruses through bodily fluids have a low transmission but a (very) high mortality (eg, AIDS, ebola);
- Exception: Black Death (a.k.a. plague): high transmission by (eg, drinking) water, high number of symptomatic carriers, and a high mortality.
The above results in this comparison:
- Corona: 100% transmission, c.5% symptomatic, c.5% mortality risk, resulting in c.0.25% global mortality (ie, 5% x 5%);
- Ebola: very low transmission and/but an almost certain death;
- Black Death: high transmission via water (eg, Great Flood) and a c.5% near global mortality.
I suppose that the WHO assumed that the coronavirus would be like the plague given its transmission rate of almost 100%, and its swift casualties.
Many people made a huge mistake by comparing swift mortalities with symptomatic / sick people instead of all infections. Maria van Kerkhove (WHO) tried to highlight this wrong assumption but in vain.
Hence, political panic took over in almost all countries, except for Sweden. The current Dutch political corona debate is irrelevant because Sweden already provided the answer: a lockdown increases mortality.
Wake Me Up (2013) by Avicii
artist, lyrics, video, Wiki-artist, Wiki-song
Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless in quotes or stated otherwise
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