The Dunning – Kruger effect

My recent blog, Fear and the 7 Belief systems, mentioned the Dunning – Kruger effect; see the yellow marking in my diagram. This “cognitive bias” is related to my blog topics of arrogance & ignorance, as well as (human) stupidity.

“The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias that describes the systematic tendency of people with low ability in a specific area to give overly positive assessments of this ability. The term may also refer to the tendency of high performers to underestimate their skills. It was first identified by the psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in 1999.”

Wikipedia: the Dunning – Kruger effect

Recently, a friend mentioned the Dunning – Kruger effect to me. In his view, Trump is the biggest example. In my view, Trump knows his weaknesses and hides those behind the long list of his attitude, behaviour & personality flaws, like:

If you actually care to know what Trump really thinks (eg, about himself, about others) then just flip any of his comments by 180 degrees. Usually, the opposite meaning of his words makes much more logic and sense. This phenomenon is called reverse psychology.

Actually, I may also underestimate myself, as several people have already claimed. The danger of becoming too big for your boots (in Dutch: naast je schoenen lopen) prevents me from believing in my intelligence. I do believe in my talents, which are a precious gift, received at birth.

Interestingly, there’s little evidence of animals experiencing the Dunning – Kruger effect:

Based on current scientific understanding, the Dunning-Kruger effect—where incompetent individuals overestimate their own competence—is generally considered a human cognitive bias.

Source: Google AI Overview, ABC-2003

The above illustrates my concepts of

• Needs, Wants & Beliefs (collective) and
• an Awakening (only individual).

Only humans have beliefs, while animals do not.

Notwithstanding the above, ritual behaviour in animals “suggest proto-religious faith”, including grief at funeral rituals.

Our (human) beliefs are the cause for our arrogance & ignorance, our stupidity, as well as the Dunning – Kruger effect.

“One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision.”

A 1951 quote by Bertrand Russell (1972-1970), an English philosopher, logician, mathematician, and public intellectual

DUNNING KRUGER BLUES (2025) by Tommy Krappweis
artist, video, Wiki-artist

Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless in quotes or stated otherwise