Almost a decade ago, I published several blogs on the Rise and Fall of Civilisations (+ part-2), and on the Rise and Fall of Nations (ie, part-3, part-4, part-5, part-6). This 2026 blog is part-7. Back then, my main questions were the why and what (ie, the ingredients) for a Rise and for a Fall.
My 2017, 2018, and 2021 diagrams (below) reflect the progress in my thinking:
The Covid-19 pandemic (2019-2023) gave me new insights following its stupidity:
- c.100% of global population was infected;
- c.95% asymptomatic virus carriers with a c.0% fatality rate, versus
- c.5% symptomatic virus carriers with a c.5% fatality rate.
- Hence, the global c.0.25% mortality rate.
That asymptomatic virus anomaly resulted in this 2021 diagram:
Today, we see a Fall of a Nation in realtime. Initially, I was thinking of USA. However, other nations are also falling (eg, Iran, Russia), albeit (much) more slowly. The American speed of its Fall continues to amaze (me).
In my view, extreme ideological beliefs (a.k.a. stupidity) appear to be the reason:
- Needs: citizens need “nothing”; the government needs “everything” (eg, kleptocracy, oligarchs, theocracies);
- Wants: a President who wants (to “buy”) entire countries (eg, Greenland) and a President who relentlessly bombs citizens in Ukraine to force surrender;
- Beliefs: the bombing of (alleged) underground nuclear storage sites in Iran, bombing of Islamic “terrorists in Nigeria, bombing a “narco” port, vessels, Capital, and the kidnapping of the President in Venezuela.
The American ideological beliefs are getting more and more extreme and are getting quite close to human stupidity.
The Only Way is Down (2015) by John Lingard
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Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless in quotes or stated otherwise
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