The law of unintended consequences

A few minutes ago, a thought ‘entered’ my mind: the law of unintended consequences. I wanted to waive it because I was sure that I had written about it. I did not though. I only mentioned it in a few blogs: If Good does bad, does Good become Bad? (2021) and The micro-macro conundrum (2019).

The law of unintended consequences is the principle that actions often have effects that are unforeseen, unacknowledged, or unpredicted, and that these results can be positive, negative, or neutral. Popularized by sociologist Robert K. Merton, the concept warns against overconfidence and emphasizes that interventions in complex systems, especially by governments, frequently produce ripple effects that extend beyond their initial goals and are difficult to predict. 

Source: Google AI Overview

I’m wondering if these two events are examples of the law of unintended consequences:

• The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine;
• The 7 October 2023 Gaza terror attacks on Israel.

Russian attacks can be foreseen and predicted due to their long military preparations. Since late 2021, Russia prepared its massive 2022 invasion of Ukraine, despite its denials. Quite often, Russian acknowledgement for its deeds – both international and national – is very late (eg, 2014 Crimea annexation).

I suppose my second example would fit the law of unintended consequences. Especially, if the American president would receive a Nobel Peace Prize, which he thinks he deserves (eg. CNN, Independent, NBC, PBS). I do hope the Norwegian Nobel Committee will waive an appeal to political correctness.

I suppose the Gaza terrorists did not foresee and predict (and acknowledge) the world’s lethargy towards their 2023 terror attack on Israel. Neither did they foresee and predict the relentless and ruthless counterattacks by Israel. Probably, they view the American president’s threats as empty.

“Fear makes come true that which one is afraid of.”
A quote from the 1946 book Man’s Search for Meaning by Viktor E. Frankl (1905-1997), an “Austrian neurologist, psychiatrist, philosopher, and Holocaust survivor”.

Unintended Consequences (2008) by Keziah Jones
artist, lyrics, video, Wiki-artist, Wiki-album+song

Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless in quotes or stated otherwise.