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T.A.C.O. – Trump Always Chickens Out

11 June 2025

I completely agree with the second part of the very last sentence below:

” […] the TACO concept captures the essence of the Trump administration, not just for financial markets but in politics and economics, too.”

I’m happy to share these excellent Bloomberg and Financial Times articles with you.

And yet another way of viewing the essence of Trump:

A bully hides his fears with fake bravado. That is the opposite of self-assertiveness.

A quote by Nathaniel Branden (1930-2014), a Canadian–American psychotherapist


Bloomberg newsletter title: The art of the fail

By: Nick Wadhams
Date: 5 June 2025

“For years, Donald Trump has boasted that only he has the talent and cunning to stare down the world’s strongmen. Where his predecessors failed, he would succeed.

In Trump’s telling on the campaign trail, the negotiating skills he honed in the rough and tumble of New York’s real estate sector meant he was uniquely suited to end conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and seal a trade deal with China.

Now Trump’s “Art of the Deal” reputation — puffed up by administration officials who call him the best negotiator to serve as president to date — is taking fresh hits.

Vladimir Putin isn’t backing down in Ukraine, Iran won’t give up its nuclear program, and China isn’t playing ball on trade. Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas have largely ignored Trump’s entreaties to stop air strikes or release hostages.

“I like President XI of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!” Trump wrote in a social-media post yesterday, a surprise admission and a stark contrast to his usual braggadocio.

Hours later, he held a call with Putin and conceded it was “not a conversation that will lead to immediate Peace.”

That too marked a major reversal. Just recently, Trump’s secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said only a direct call between the two leaders would bring the war to an end. But Putin has repeatedly made clear he’s in no mood to give Trump the ceasefire he’s demanded.

The US president’s pattern of backing down on tariffs meanwhile spawned the now-famous Taco Trade — Trump Always Chickens Out.

Leaders like Putin and Xi — not to mention those in Iran and Venezuela — appear to have come up with their own way of handling Trump. He may not chicken out, but waiting him out seems to work just as well.”


Financial Times title: TACO Trade. Explained

By: Robert Armstrong
Date: 6 June 2025

“Thanks to Donald Trump — and the FT’s own Robert Armstrong — the term “TACO trade” has entered the market lexicon. Coined by Armstrong in his award-winning Unhedged newsletter, the acronym stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out”, reflecting a pattern where investors bet on market rebounds in response to the president’s retreat from hardline tariff threats.

Keep reading for a note from Robert himself, revisiting the origins of TACO — and why it still matters. Sign up for a 30-day trial ofUnhedged, Robert’s newsletter, for a sharp dose of market insight — plus, catch up on more essential reading on market shifts and the TACO trade.”

Financial Times note by Robert Armstrong:

“Cometh the hour, cometh the TACO. I coined the acronym, for Trump Always Chickens Out, in my Unhedged newsletter which you can access free for 30 days. TACO labelled the up-and-down pattern in markets driven by the president’s equivocation on tariff policy, while reminding investors that too much credulity about the president’s pronouncements came at a cost. The tagline captured the zeitgeist in markets and beyond. It was quickly adopted by traders and analysts, and before long led to a notorious White House exchange in which the president called the idea “nasty.” Nasty or not, the shoe fits, and the president has been wearing it ever since. 

Other writers (the New York Times’ Russ Douthat and Tom Friedman, The Washington Post’s Dana Milbank,  Bloomberg’s John Authers, and the FT’s own Gideon Rachman and Martin Wolf) have argued that the TACO concept captures the essence of the Trump administration, not just for financial markets but in politics and economics, too.” Note LO: bold markings in last line by me.


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