Occam’s razor is a problem-solving principle that suggests the simplest explanation for a phenomenon is usually the best one. Sherlock Holmes‘ principle seems (very) different: “When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” (Wiki)
Both principles rely on statistical probabilities. Quite often, the simplest explanation has a (very) high probability. The improbable often has an extremely low probability. The impact of the probability is (likely) high in both cases (eg, murder); else the (risk) event would have been ignored.
In Sherlock Holmes, the simplest explanation often is not true, apart from an occasional the butler did it. Nevertheless, the perpetrator is often known to the victim, like in real-life. Allegedly, in 9 out of 10 crimes, the perpetrator is known to the victim. The other 1 case is the improbable.
“The claim that 9 out of 10 crimes involve a perpetrator known to the victim is not accurate for all types of crimes. While it’s true for certain types of crimes, like sexual violence, it doesn’t hold for general crime statistics.”
Source: Google AI summary
Already. the overlap between Sherlock Holmes and Occam’s razor becomes clear: the 90% is about Occam’s razor, while the 10% is about Sherlock Holmes improbable but true events. Moreover, the investigation sequence follows both principles as starting with the improbable would be wasted time.
However, which crimes are not personal?? Most crimes rely on (detailed) knowledge (eg, object, subject). Some crimes might be random, like pickpocketing. Nevertheless, your personal clothing may lower or raise your risk. Apparently, victimless crimes are an exception; see examples.
Considering the above, improbable crimes are quite unlikely. Elimination of known possibilities and declaring those as impossibilities, will – ultimately – result in the improbable.
“The impossible often has a kind of integrity which the merely improbable lacks.”
A quote by Douglas Adams (1952-2001), “an English author, humorist, and screenwriter, best known as the creator of The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy“
Crime of the Century (1974) by Supertramp
band, lyrics, video, Wiki-band, Wiki-album+song
Who are these men of lust, greed and glory?
Rip off the masks and let’s see
But that’s not right – oh no, what’s the story?
Look! There’s you and there’s me
(That can’t be right…)
Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless in quotes or stated otherwise.
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