Many articles claim that Trump’s proposed surge in import tariffs (eg, Canada & Mexico, BRICS nations) will cause a surge in inflation. In and of itself, that (primary) argument is true. However, such articles often ignore its secondary impact, on demand & supply.
Rising inflation will only be relevant for goods & services that we need. Items that we want can often – and easily – be delayed. Hence, a sharp increase in import tariffs will cause a sharp fall in demand. That is the real danger of Trump’s import tariff threats.
A sharp decline in American demand will hurt foreign economies and foreign suppliers. Hence, do not believe foreign politicians that such tariff threats are meaningless, and will only increase American inflation.
In principle, the U.S. Constitution prevents Trump from a third presidency, despite his “jokes” (eg, Vox-2024). Hence, Trump does not need to worry about the consequences of his deeds, like a “100% [import] tariff on Brics nations if they try to replace dollar” (eg, BBC-2024).
I suppose that Trump’s (import) tariff threat to BRICS nations is not a joke. If only because China, his favourite target for threats, is included in BRICS (ie, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates).
The alleged and/or suspected Russian blackmail of Trump (eg, the Hill, National Interest, National Memo, Newsweek) cannot (really) hurt Trump any longer. Hence, we might get (very) surprised in his choices & priorities in the war between Ukraine and Russia.
Thus far, all news articles on Trump suggest a continuation of his cycle of disruption, chaos & destruction (eg, his Cabinet nominees, my 2017 blog), and a new cycle of revenge & retaliation (eg, my recent blog).
I suspect that American inflation will increase around mid 2025. Obviously, Trump will blame that increase on his predecessor, Joe Biden. However, American voters will (ultimately) also ask Trump: show me the money !
Show Me the Money ! (1996) from Jerry Maguire
video, Wiki-JM
Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless in quotes or stated otherwise.
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