Recently, economist Daron Acemoglu and Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology claimed that Artificial Intelligence (AI) can only do 5% of jobs. Bloomberg: “You’re not going to get an economic revolution”. Hence, he fears a “massive crash” in a bubble. I agree.
Before his prediction, we had several doomsday predictions by the IMF (January 2024 report) and by consulting firm McKinsey (July 2023 report). For doomsday details, see Guardian article (re IMF) and LinkedIn article (re McKinsey).
Late 2021, I made a diagram that is necessary in understanding the context. Basically, AI is the next step in a process that started a long time ago by mechanization (1800-1900), automation (1900-2000), and robotics (2000-2100). The first step (ie, tools) started in ancient history, millennia ago.
Similar doomsday predictions were made regarding its previous steps, being mechanization, automation, and robotics. Apparently, fear rules the human mind, over and over again.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is on the fourth line of stronger, faster, better, and harder. Slowly, it’s becoming clear that harder also applies to making AI – let alone using it. Hence, “the AI revolution has an astronomical burn rate“ of billions of cash funding (eg, Axios, 3 October 2024).
In my view, harder also relates to our (lack of) understanding of consciousness and intelligence, and our lack of separating opinions from facts. Most of what we say or write are subjective truths; please watch 1974 interview with Karl Popper. Moreover, why would our opinions be relevant to AI ??
Hence, the 5% prediction above is also a consequence of the (very) long duration of AI development. In my view, decades rather than years. Most likely, most AI developers will either go bankrupt, or be acquired by Big Tech companies.
My sequence of stronger, faster, better, and harder is based on reality (eg, history) and not on wishful thinking, like Daft Punk below.
Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger (2001) by Daft Punk
band, lyrics, video, Wiki-band, Wiki-song
[Intro]
Work it, make it
Do it, makes us
Harder, better
Faster, stronger
Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless in quotes or stated otherwise.
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