In a recent NYT article, Professor Allan Lichtman (b.1947), the “Prophet of Presidential Elections” since 1984, gave his prediction for 5 November 2024. I agree with his prediction and actually felt the same, early last week. I declined writing my prediction as it was based on emotions rather than ratio.
”The model uses 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the incumbent party will win or lose the next election. Using this model, Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of most U.S. presidential elections since 1984 […]”.
Source: Wikipedia
In my view, the Democratic Party will not substantially change following the transfer of power from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris. Moreover, an extremist left-liberal faction, called The Squad, has already been hurt in 2024 elections.
The Republican Party will need to reinvent itself following the 2024 U.S. presidential election. I expect that the GOP will split in two parties: conservatives (eg, Liz Cheney, Paul Ryan) and Trump-nationalists. Most likely, latter group will vanish quickly after the demise of Trump (b.1946).
Kamala Harris is a former prosecutor, who is considered ruthless, my recent blog. Hence, I suppose she will not be soft on a convicted ex-president. A deal granting Trump immunity in exchange for his (and his family’s) retreat from politics seems (very) unlikely.
Perhaps, the U.S. Supreme Court could – again – protect the former president. I doubt they will. It may trigger a ruthless president. Several countries, including Mexico, are already contemplating restrictions on their Supreme Court. White House restrictions might be next.
I’m genuinely looking forward to seeing Allan Lichtman’s prediction becoming reality.
New Kid in Town (1976) by the Eagles
band, lyrics, video, Wiki-band, Wiki-song
[Verse 1]
There’s talk on the street, it sounds so familiar
Great expectations, everybody’s watching you
People you meet, they all seem to know you
Even your old friends treat you like you’re something new
Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless in quotes or stated otherwise.
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