Sta Hungry Stay Foolish

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

A blog by Leon Oudejans

Finally: Dutch defragmentation

The most important – and overlooked – result of the 2023 Dutch General Election is a defragmentation. Small parties lost seats (-17) or even disappeared from Dutch Parliament (-2). All four government parties lost seats (-36). Left-wing parties lost seats (-14). Right-wing parties won the 2023 election.

The biggest misconception is that a big Left-wing party (ie, GL/PvdA) won +8 seats. Media articles “forget” to mention that the total of Green/Left parties lost -14 seats: +8 for GL/PvdA, -15 for D66, -4 for SP,-and -3 for PvdD. Hence, the Green/Left “winner” absorbed a part of its total loss.

The biggest winner is a party that used to express extreme nationalist views (+20 seats). The second biggest winner is a new party around a person, who was ousted by a government party (+20). The third biggest winner is a new party that represents angry farmers (+6). In total: 3 parties with +46 seats.

The most likely government coalition (ie, PVV+VVD+NSC+BBB) will have an adequate parliamentary majority: 88 of 150 seats. Its stability will depend on the continued absence of the extreme nationalist views of Geert Wilders‘ PVV. His victory speech suggests that he understand his position.

Last Wednesday evening, a TV panel member highlighted my point above: the Dutch Parliament will have (at least) 93 seats for 5 parties with a nationalist or a Right-wing background. Green/Left will only have some 44 seats for 5 parties. The remaining 6 small parties will have a total of 13 seats.

It’s likely that Dutch political defragmentation will persist and even increase (eg, JA21, Volt). Most likely, the Christian and islamic parties will continue (ie, CU, DENK, SGP). Special-interest parties will survive (eg, PvdD for animals). A further Left-wing consolidation might occur (eg, SP, Volt).

It’s unlikely that Dutch Right-wing parties will opt for consolidation.

Political bipartisanship creates a zebra like this cartoon.

As I had already expected, a consolidation will cost voters; see my September 8 blog.

Political parties are like brands in advertising, and need to highlight “unique” features for attracting the beliefs of voters.

“Listening moves us closer, it helps us become more whole, more healthy, more holy. Not listening creates fragmentation, and fragmentation is the root of all suffering.”

A quote by Margaret (Meg) Wheatley (b.1944) from her 2001 article: Listening as Healing

Fragmentation (Acoustic Version) – 2003 – by Threshold
band, lyrics, video, Wiki-band, Wiki-album+song

Note: all markings (bolditalicunderlining) by LO unless in quotes or stated otherwise.

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