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Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

A blog by Leon Oudejans

Dot.com bubble vs AI hype

Recently, Belgian newspaper De Standaard asked an intriguing question: Is a bubble scenario looming for artificial intelligence? Their question came as a surprise. Probably, because AI and robotics already play an important role in automotive. The dot.com bubble felt (very) different.

Source: my June 12 blog

Please see my SWOT analysis on artificial intelligence, as published in my June 12 blog.

My main observation is that strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of AI business models are evenly divided.

Hence, a balanced risk-reward scenario for AI, unlike dot.com.

A comparison between the dot.com bubble (late 1990s) and today’s AI hype reveals the following:

  • The main weakness and similarity in both is loss-making business models. Hence, the question above?!
  • A big difference was the lack of strengths in the dot.com business models, unlike AI.
  • The valuation of the very many dot.com business models was largely based on opportunities, unlike AI (eg, very few business models).
  • AI threats are deemed similar (ie, replacing human jobs) although much more dangerous (eg, human extinction).

It could be argued that the dot.com opportunities have never really transferred into strengths because dot.com companies bought market share at the expense of their profitability. Hence, even big dot.com companies are still struggling with their profitability (eg, Amazon, Netflix).

It could also be argued that the many perceived threats on AI underline its potential importance and/or relevance. Nearly every new sophisticated tool in technology is deemed to destroy human jobs. However, expected future demographics make this threat rather hollow and pointless.

I doubt that AI is (very) relevant in the Business-to-Consumer (B2C) market, apart from (perhaps) domestic robots. I fail to see any relevant application in my private life (eg, writing). In my view, AI and robotics is mainly a Business-to-Business (B2B) and/or professional application.

Some relevant quotes on AI:

  • Edsger W. Dijkstra: “The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than the question of whether a submarine can swim.”
  • Stuart Russell: “No one has a clue how to build a conscious machine, at all.”
  • Alan Turing: “A computer would deserve to be called intelligent if it could deceive a human into believing that it was human.”

Nothing Compares 2 U (1985) by Sinéad O’Connor (1990)
artist, lyrics, video, Wiki-artist, Wiki-song

[Chorus]
‘Cause nothing compares
Nothing compares to you

Note: all markings (bolditalicunderlining) by LO unless in quotes or stated otherwise.

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