Until late 1971, Taiwan represented entire China as a member state at the United Nations. On 25 October 1971, UN Resolution 2758 ended its membership, and allowed mainland China to represent the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Today, Taiwan’s informal status is stronger than ever (eg, Trouw).
Hence, my question: should Taiwan be re-admitted to the UN?
The simple answer is NO. Today, its formal re-admittance is impossible. First and foremost, it would require changing UN Resolution 1668 (eg, my recent blog). That is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future. Moreover, any discussion on its formal status would hurt its informal status.
A complex answer is YES but only once the Republic of China (a.k.a. Taiwan) will no longer claim to represent entire China. The formal change of its name (ie, ROC) might open the door to re-admitting Taiwan to the UN. My solution is pragmatic but may never happen given mutual ideology.
A complicating factor is that China is weakening while Taiwan is strengthening. The Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu advised the following in his book The Art of War: Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak. This may explain China’s saber rattling towards Taiwan.
The weakening of China is due to its ideology, like its one-child policy (1980-2015), the crackdown on its Big Tech sector and its CEOs, its many real estate crises, its foreign currency exchange controls, the impact of its zero-Covid policy, and its slogan of common prosperity a.k.a. common poverty.
The geopolitical strengthening of Taiwan and the weakening of China (eg, demographics, economics & finance, technology) will – most likely – result in more incidents. In my view, it’s unlikely that China will go to war against Taiwan (and USA) because China’s leaders have too much to lose.
“I believe our bond is stronger now than at any time or point in my lifetime and of course, President Tsai is a great champion of that bond.” (Kevin McCarthy).
Nikkei, 6 April 2023: Taiwan’s Tsai and U.S. Speaker McCarthy hail ‘stronger than ever’ bonds
“It is self-evident that the peace we have maintained and the democracy we have worked so hard to build face unprecedented challenges.” (Tsai Ing-wen).
Two Tribes (1984) by Frankie Goes to Hollywood
band, lyrics, video, Wiki-band, Wiki-album, Wiki-song
When two tribes go to war
A point is all that you can score
Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless in quotes or stated otherwise.
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