Sta Hungry Stay Foolish

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

A blog by Leon Oudejans

Climate warming, energy transition and geopolitics

Russia is (allegedly) looking for money to pay for its war against Ukraine (eg, Forbes-2022-03, FP-2022-07, Telegraph-2022-09, Bloomberg-2023, FT-2023). Russian cash flow is hindered by a mild 2022/23 winter and geopolitical events (eg, 2022 Russian oil price cap, and EU natural gas price cap).

European climate warming was predicted decades ago (eg, Milankovitch cycles) as a result of Earth’s axial precession: “a gravity-induced, slow, and continuous change in the orientation of an astronomical body’s rotational axis.” I suppose the Russian president might (also) be in climate denial.

In 2018, an EU Parliament study already stated the following in its abstract: “Russia and other energy-rich authoritarian states use their energy exports for economic gains but also as a tool of foreign policy leverage.” “Most energy-rich authoritarian states use their energy wealth to ensure regime survival.”

In 2012, the IMF already noted that “Resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs) face the challenges of transforming resource wealth into other assets that support sustained development, while also maintaining mechanisms to avoid the boombust cycles that stem from volatility in natural resource revenues.”

Hence, the world must face ginormous geopolitical events in the forthcoming decades.

When international sanctions no longer bite back (eg, energy supply) then their future impact should multiply (eg, triple, quadruple). This may well spell the end of energy-rich authoritarian regimes (eg, Iran, Russia, Saudi-Arabia, Venezuela). That would leave China with few friends (eg, North Korea).

The impact of such geopolitical changes would be mind-blowing. I suppose it would be the start of a (very) long period of equilibrium, peace and prosperity. In the absence of (eg, geopolitical) competition then cooperation becomes the default. Hence, alliances should expand (eg, friendshoring).

I suppose that period of tranquility may (finally) trigger a First Contact, which would then accelerate the Technical Revolution of 1800-2100. Space travel becomes our future (eg, space exploration). However, space colonization will trigger a new period of (interplanetary) competition.

The above is an example of my 2022 blog: The more things change, the more they stay the same.

“Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose”. In English: “the more it changes, the more it’s the same thing”.

“An epigram by Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr in the January 1849 issue of his journal Les Guêpes (“The Wasps”).” (Wiki)

The More Things Change (2010) by Bon Jovi
band, lyrics, video, Wiki-band, Wiki-album+song

The more things change the more they stay the same
The more things change the more they stay the same

Note: all markings (bolditalicunderlining) by LO unless in quotes or stated otherwise.


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