Outsmarting

I have a friend who is clever, smart, and a professional. Nevertheless, I fear for his safety and so does his family. For some months, I have been urging him to relocate and find safer grounds. He agrees there is a risk. He does not act on it. I haven’t asked him why. I should do because everything follows Why.

I’ve used many arguments for my plea. He counters these with arguments from his field of expertise. His replies suggest that we are having an intellectual debate, like in our joint past. Nevertheless, he knows, feels, and believes that my worries are genuine. Perhaps, I could outsmart him but I don’t need, want or believe in that. It would only be a Pyrrhic victory while my plea would drift towards the horizon.

I fail to understand why he acts against the saying better safe than sorry. In my view, his expertise is working against him. He thinks the exact opposite (ie, in favour). In my view, he is being too smart for his own good (eg, Psychology Today). This cognitive bias is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect (eg, source).

In any perspective, there’s a macro and a micro focus. My friend’s analysis might indeed be correct. I doubt, however, that his individual and micro analysis is complete (eg, missing variables). Any macro view would immediately highlight serious risks that cannot be mitigated for the time being.

I just took a look at his zodiac, which explains his behaviour remarkably well (eg, changing [their] mind about something will not be an easy task, farsightedness, push their luck far too frequently, never miss the chance to overcome challenges, strong independent nature, take their time with decisions that may involve a loss of personal freedom). Not getting the approval from others may change his mind though.

My friend has (implicitly) challenged me to write a blog about him with a different (and too revealing) title. Outsmarting is a better reflection of the effort that it will take to convince him – or me, for that matter.

This blog was written on 14 October 2021 but was not published until today, at the request of his family and him. In the meantime, he may have relocated to safer grounds. I doubt it. Outsmarting and stubbornness also seem to be friends in life (eg, source, HBR, source).

The Tipping Point (2021) by Tears For Fears
artists, lyrics, video, Wiki, new 2022 album (NME)

Raise your hand, bite your tongue
Conversation is over and done
Will you let ’em out?
Will you let ’em in?
Will you ever know when it’s the tipping point, the tipping point?

Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless stated otherwise.