Sta Hungry Stay Foolish

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

A blog by Leon Oudejans

Will the war with Russia prevent a global recession?

Late 2008, the India-based Economic Times published this article: Is war a solution to global recession? Recently, I had a similar thought; see my blog title above. Mid April 2022, the “veteran investment strategist” David Roche argued on CNBC that this isn’t a recession – it’s a ‘war-cession’.

Unless Putin will be assassinated, this conflict is likely to expand (eg, towards Kaliningrad, Kazakhstan, Transnistria in Moldova) rather than subdue. This conflict will last as long as Putin lives. Putin prefers dying as a martyr rather than accept “peace” – let alone defeat. America and Europe must protect NATO interests. This is a proxy World War.

Hence, I am inclined to believe that a global recession may either be short or not take place at all. War expenditures will boost the economy in total, although it will hurt various business sectors.

Moreover, any war will show ideology (ie, the aggressor) and pragmatism (ie, the defenders). As my mentor once used to say: under pressure, everything becomes fluid. War might well be the ultimate pressure. The defenders have no choice but to lose their ideological beliefs in order to win a war.

Diagram from my 16 July 2020 blog

In my view, human beliefs – and our belief systems – are becoming more and more extreme.

I have always been fascinated by the StraussHowe generational theory. Their concept fits well in my concepts.

Humans have 3 collective development stages: Needs, Wants & Beliefs. Individuals have 2 more development stages: an Awakening (ie, minimizing beliefs) and Wisdom.

Hence, a war relieves the pressure that was building due to our extreme beliefs.

Maintaining ideology, while under pressure, will result in a recession (eg, zero-Covid in China). The only way out of a emerging (global) recession is pragmatism. A war will force a return to pragmatism.

There will be a need for a post-war Marshall plan (1948) for Ukraine – and possibly for Russia too. This will further boost the global economy. I suppose that a Marshall plan for Ukraine (and for Russia) will be funded by a Robin Hood like approach on Russian billionaires (eg, Putin).

I Need a Dollar (2010) by Aloe Blacc
artist, lyrics, video, Wiki-artist, Wiki-song

I need a dollar, dollar
Dollar, that’s what I need (Hey, hey)
Well, I need a dollar, dollar
Dollar, that’s what I need

Note: all markings (bolditalic, underlining) by LO unless in quotes or stated otherwise.


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