I never thought that I would be writing this blog. I’m still hesitating. Once it’s published then I will have made my final decision. I’m hesitant because of the big words that I’m using (ie, a proxy World War). It’s the only way that I can classify what’s going on in Ukraine. This is no longer a regional war.
Let me start by explaining my choice of words: a proxy World War.
According to Wikipedia, “A proxy war is an armed conflict between two states or non-state actors which act on the instigation or on behalf of other parties that are not directly involved in the hostilities.” Example: the Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict in Yemen since 2014. Also see Wiki for World War 1 and WW2.
Ukraine’s desire for a NATO membership has dragged many countries into a proxy world war between NATO and Russia. This proxy world war will only end by Putin’s removal. Probably, Putin assumed that his 2022 invasion of Ukraine would be treated like his invasion of Georgia (2008), Crimea and Donbas (both 2014).
The difference with 2022 is in its bluntness. Russia no longer hides behind its little green men, which phrase “refers to masked soldiers of the Russian Federation in unmarked green army uniforms and carrying modern Russian military weapons and equipment who appeared during the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2014.”
This Russian bluntness explains NATO’s quick response. In NATO’s view, the 2022 Russian invasion may be a first step towards a corridor to Kaliningrad, which is “the only ice-free port of Russia and the Baltic states” on the Baltic Sea. Hence, NATO could no longer afford its (common) position of No Action Talk Only.
Recently, the Dutch Financial Times published an interview with Kishore Mahbubani (b.1948), a former President of the United Nations Security Council and an academic from Singapore. His conclusion (in English): USA will be the big winner of the war in Ukraine. Moreover, China will be one of the losers. I tend to agree.
Russia hasn’t been an American priority since the dissolution of the Soviet Union (1988-1991), Nevertheless, a Russian demise would hurt China, given its wrong bet on Russia, and/but still aims for an “involuntary” reunification with Taiwan. A similar Chinese invasion must be delayed by decades – at least.
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine does not look or feel like World War 3 to us. Nevertheless, the Western efforts in supporting Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invaders tell a (very) different tale. The Western intentions are clear: (i) Putin must fail in order for Russia to survive, and (ii) China must understand.
Despite the serenity around us, there’s a proxy World War in Ukraine. Make no mistake.
I scare myself, and I don’t mean lightly
I scare myself, it can get frightening
I scare myself, to think what I could do
Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless in quotes or stated otherwise.