Several articles express that the Western sanctions, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, mark the end of globalization (eg, Axios). I tend to agree with that. Hence, my blog’s title: what’s next after globalization?
To a large extent, these changes are like swing of a pendulum.
This results in swings between (amongst others):
- Left (or Labour) vs Right (or Capital);
- Countries or states vs Federations;
- Globalism vs Nationalism.
These swings may be viewed as coupling vs decoupling (my blogs).
The fundamental human force behind this phenomenon is competition vs cooperation (my blogs).
Clearly, we are – once again – approaching an era of competition.
I do not expect a full counter swing from globalism to nationalism (my blogs). I think, feel and believe that countries will look for an equilibrium (my blogs) between both (extreme) ends of the scale.
It seems likely that we are approaching an era of (i) increased federalism (eg, in Europe), and (ii) allied blocs (eg, Australia, Canada, Europe, Japan, UK and USA).
Given the Third Law of Motion by Isaac Newton, “for every action (force) in nature there is an equal and opposite reaction” (NASA). Hence, how will other countries react to an allied bloc?
Arab countries would need to reconcile their Shia-Sunni schism (eg, my 2016 blog Shia vs Sunni). Today, this seems unlikely but people assumed the same about Catholics vs Protestants, several centuries ago.
African countries might well be the most unlikely countries to start cooperating and forming a bloc. The same may apply for Asian countries but for different reasons (eg, neutrality towards China vs Japan).
The ultimate question is whether the “unbreakable bond” between China and Russia will survive the Russian invasion of Ukraine. If not, will China opt for competition against or for cooperation with the allied bloc?
Best Kept Secret (1986) by China Crisis
artists, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2
Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless in quotes or stated otherwise.
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