Sta Hungry Stay Foolish

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

A blog by Leon Oudejans

From pandemic to endemic

On 10 January 2022, the Spanish PM urged Europe to treat Covid-19 as a more endemic illness following the Omicron variant (eg, VOA, Bloomberg, NYT). In more simple words: “Just treat it like the flu” (Fortune).

This news must have alerted the people with a micro and a macro perspective (my blogs on micro vs macro). People with a micro view will be confused as they chose to believe in fear. People with a macro focus will rejoice as this news seems to evidence their rejection of fear – and facts.

As always, the truth is in the middle. For about 95% of all humans, this global viral disease is endemic, like the flu. For the remainder of about 5%, it’s indeed a pandemic with a mortality rate of about 5%. This must be the reason why the average cumulative national mortality rates are about 0.25% (ie, 5% x 5%).

The Why question is very relevant. My assumption is the SARS-CoV 2 virus had been very successfully edited in a Chinese BSL-4 lab with American funding for so called gain-of-function research. Then the virus escaped. Probably during a relocation of a BSL-4 lab. This news might only get out after a 100 years or so.

I suppose that the zero-Covid policy in China is related to the potential avalanche of legal claims. It might be cheaper to pretend an ongoing pandemic than to acknowledge an endemic due to a blunder.

Perhaps, the very successful Chinese scientific breakthrough may prevent a new pandemic like the Spanish flu of 1918, which is likely to have had the opposite numbers: c.80% symptomatic virus carriers at a mortality rate of c.5% = a national mortality of c.4% rather than c.0.25% for Covid. Also see my 14 May 2020 blog.

The asymptomatic Covid-19 anomaly, in which there are c.95% rather than 5% asymptomatic virus carriers, is a nuisance to all governments. Fortunately, the mainstream media are (very) gullible – if not plain stupid.

Hence, the Spanish PM is wise as a smooth transfer from pandemic to endemic will remove the Why question for many – if not most. This is in the interest of our so called “leaders”. I do expect, however, that future history books will ridicule the stupidity of the early 21st century.

ALL THE STUPID PEOPLE – Parody of Eleanor Rigby | Don Caron
artist, Facebook, IMDb, lyrics in video, video, Wiki-Carlo Cipolla

Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless stated otherwise.


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