Sta Hungry Stay Foolish

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

A blog by Leon Oudejans

Go with the flow

A salmon lives in oceans or seas but returns to the place it was born in order to lay its eggs (ie, to spawn). That upstream river swim towards the spot where the salmon was born is so exhaustive that salmon “usually die after spawning” (source). I suppose this explains the human adage: go with the flow.

Most of us adhere to that adage. At times, we don’t like that flow anymore and we start resisting it. Often this results in either a resignation at work (micro) or (mass) protests against governments and the like (macro). Resistance on a micro scale will usually have the desired effect: Change.

Since 2021, there is a phenomenon that has been dubbed the Great Resignation. Wiki: “The term Great Resignation was likely coined by Anthony Klotz, a professor of management at Mays Business School of Texas A&M University, who predicted this mass exodus was coming in May 2021.”

In my view, the Great Resignation is the result of several phenomena:
(1) skyrocketing global urban housing prices due to low interest levels following Central Bank stimuli,
(2) severe Covid restrictions (eg, lockdows) in (mainly) urban areas,
(3) early retirement and a relocation of early retirees to “cheap” rural areas, following (1) and (2),
(4) increasing labour shortages following (3) and following global demographics (ie, less children),
(5) a rebounding economy causes a (i) competition for talent and (ii) an increase in salaries.

In my view, (5) equals the Great Resignation.

I suppose that (5) will be followed by a (significant) boost in Artificial Intelligence and robotics in order to replace human jobs, whether these are currently unfulfilled vacancies or future ones.

This AI & robotics boost will equal phase 3 of the Technological Revolution of 1800-2100:
(0) before c.1800: use of tools;
(1) c.1800-1900: mechanization a.k.a. Industrial Revolution (1760-1840);
(2) c.1900-2000: automation (eg,  Herman Hollerith, Charles Babbage, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs)
(3) c.2000-2100: Artificial Intelligence and robotics, including a (likely) medical revolution (eg, DNA vaccines, nanorobot research by 2016 Nobel prize winner Ben Feringa).

The 2021 labour shortages suggest that (3) may not cause mass unemployment, following these mitigants:
(i) demographics: a decrease in the average number of children per female;
(ii) employment: an increase in early retirees profiting from skyrocketing housing prices.

The above feels like another example of the saying by famous Dutch soccer player Johan Cruijff (1947-2016): Every disadvantage has its advantage (source).

The River Must Flow (1978) by Gino Vannelli
artist, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2

Thru love I will find a meaning in life
But the rain must fall down tonight
And like a river that flows to the sea

Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless stated otherwise.


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