Sta Hungry Stay Foolish

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

A blog by Leon Oudejans

Zero Covid policy

Introduction LO:

I’m not fond of opinions, including the one below, which feels like a personal attack.

Nevertheless, any zero-virus policy is indeed arrogant and ignorant and doomed to fail. Viruses are neither alive nor dead, at least following human definitions (ie, Nature’s Tree of Life). Moreover, their origin is still unknown. The more you prevent viruses to do their thing, the longer they will stick around, looking for ways to contaminate their hosts (eg, animals, humans, plants).

Recently, the Sydney Morning Herald quoted an Australian police chief saying: “Treat the virus as a criminal.” This guy admitted that “the decision to escalate enforcement of COVID-19 restrictions was not directly based on health advice.” The stupidity in some countries is beyond (my) imagination.

There are two solutions:
(1) for the group of about 95% of asymptomatic virus carriers, trust your immune system to deal with viruses (eg, Science, Volkskrant, 2021 study), and
(2) for the group of about 5% of symptomatic virus carriers, trust the vaccines that were developed for you.

For the ones who are still scared: combine (1) and (2).

Telegraph: Poor Jacinda Ardern, trapped in her arrogant Zero Covid policy

Telegraph subtitle: While she condemns New Zealand to perpetual lockdowns, the rest of the Western world is getting vaccinated and moving on from the virus
By: Matthew Lesh
Date: 19 August 2021

“Poetic justice is beautiful. Last week, Jacinda Ardern, the prime minister of New Zealand, announced that the antipodean nation would indefinitely pursue a zero Covid strategy. This week, it entered a stringent nationwide lockdown after the emergence of a single Covid-19 case. The pandemic giveth, the pandemic taketh away.

Since the lockdown announcement, a further 20 cases have emerged. The virus had been circulating for a few weeks, in a largely unvaccinated population. Turns out the Covid risk has not disappeared. Following on from Australia, which has seen rising daily cases despite continued harsh lockdowns, the country could soon be stuck in a Covid rut. Locked down, at risk and no way out.

New Zealand’s Covid-19 response was idealised last year. The small island nation eliminated the virus – with short lockdowns, closed borders and effective contact tracing – and largely lived without restrictions. Economic growth has been high and mortality has been low. But what worked in 2020 is not the same as what makes sense in 2021.

We now have vaccines. The ingenious jabs substantially reduce the risk of hospitalisation and death from the virus. They do not mean zero risk or, for that matter, zero cases. But they change the calculation: elimination becomes a costly strategy with very limited benefit. What’s the point of lockdowns and maintaining closed borders for a virus that, with vaccines in the mix, no longer causes much harm to individual people?

New Zealand has not come to this realisation. It has fetishised “zero risk” for the past 17 months and show little interest in updating its strategy. Last week, Ms Ardern announced that New Zealand would maintain an “elimination, or ‘stamp it out’, strategy” into the next stage of the pandemic, even when more people are vaccinated. 

There might be some loosening on the border next year, but not much more than that is planned. When they realise that there is still a risk of bringing in Covid, even from a vaccinated individual, these plans could also be shelved.

New Zealand’s zero Covid strategy has had frightening consequences. A once-welcoming nation is turning into an isolated dystopia, where liberties are taken away in a heartbeat and outsiders are shunned. Living under the constant threat of disruptive and psychologically crushing lockdowns. Being closed off to the world, with citizens’ ability to travel curtailed and foreigners largely prevented from entering. So much for the open, welcoming liberal nation projected by Ms Ardern.

Indeed, for all the screams of “Slay Queen Jacinda” on social media, Ms Ardern has shown little serious interest in protecting her people. New Zealand has fully vaccinated just one in five of its population, the second lowest in the OECD. It even shut down vaccination centres when it entered “level 4” restrictions this week. Lockdown first, foremost and forever.

The implications of New Zealand’s strategy stretch well beyond Covid. “Zero risk” gives the state limitless justification to interfere with our lives in the most extreme of ways. Individual choice, bodily autonomy and basic privacy become subsumed to the goal of taking away anything that could do us even the smallest level of harm. Fear breeds tolerance for the most extreme actions. A liberal society becomes impossible to maintain.

This pandemic has changed our lives in so many ways. We have sacrificed so much in the name of public safety. But at some point, we have to declare “enough is enough”. Snap lockdowns over small numbers of cases and constant state interference in our lives is simply no way to live.”

Telegraph, 19 August 2021: Poor Jacinda Ardern, trapped in her arrogant Zero Covid policy
Telegraph, 24 August 2021: Even Australia is realising that the moral case for Zero Covid has collapsed
The Economist, 28 August 2021: Australia is ending its zero-covid strategy


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