We often talk about our future as if we’re not even part of it. In that view, our future is abstract, absolute, and opaque. In reality, our overall future can – most likely – be predicted with a fair degree of certainty. Moreover, our future is relative as each of our (eg, daily) choices has an impact on our own future.
Indeed, our life gets more complex when we add external factors (eg, relationship, sports, study, work). However, any mathematical formula gets more complex when you add variables. You can still solve it.
Interestingly, research shows that we would like to know the future but that we will decline when offered:
“Two nationally representative studies involving more than 2,000 adults in Germany and Spain found that 85 to 90 percent of people would not want to know about upcoming negative events, and 40 to 70 percent preferred to remain ignorant of upcoming positive events. Only 1 percent of participants consistently wanted to know what the future held.” Note: markings in quote by LO.
Quote from 2017 press release by the American Psychological Association (APA)
The 2017 APA article argues that this represents a “pattern of deliberate ignorance”. I disagree. In general, arrogance and ignorance (my blogs) have a certain balance in life. Therefore, the high percentages above do suggest another phenomenon than ignorance. In my view, it’s about the eternal cycle of Doubt-Fear-Hope-Love that governs our lives.
Knowing your future may crush Hope. It would also suggest that your future cannot be changed. Hence, it’s just not worth knowing it. Without knowing, there is still hope that you can change your future.
To some extent, there is an analogy with a famous argument offered by the French French philosopher, theologian, mathematician and physicist Blaise Pascal (1623-1662), which is known as Pascal’s wager:
“Pascal argues that a rational person should live as though God exists and seek to believe in God. If God does not actually exist, such a person will have only a finite loss (some pleasures, luxury, etc.), whereas if God does exist, he stands to receive infinite gains (as represented by eternity in Heaven) and avoid infinite losses (eternity in Hell).” (Wikipedia)
In risk-management terms: the upside (a.k.a. reward) of knowing is (much) lower than the downside (a.k.a. risk) of not knowing. This explains our low risk appetite regarding knowing our future.
Two quotes from the French moralist and author of maxims, François de La Rochefoucauld (1613-1680):
- Hope and fear are inseparable. There is no hope without fear, nor any fear without hope.
- We promise according to our hopes and perform according to our fears.
My Future (2020) by Billie Eilish
artist, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2
‘Cause I, I’m in love
With my future
Can’t wait to meet her
And I (I), I’m in love
But not with anybody else
Just wanna get to know myself
Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless stated otherwise.
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