Sta Hungry Stay Foolish

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

A blog by Leon Oudejans

A German U-turn

Last Monday, I noticed a very interesting message in a leading Dutch newspaper: Germany intends to change its law and remove the number of contaminations as a corona benchmark. Instead, it will use the number of hospital admittances as a benchmark for its corona policy. On 7 July 2021, Dutch parliament adopted a similar measure but our caretaker government still ignores that parliamentary resolution.

For many months, I have been arguing that the number of corona contaminations is irrelevant as a benchmark because about 95% of any population are asymptomatic virus carriers without corona related health issues. About 5% of any population has a rather high (about 5%) fatality rate. This is the only way to explain the (very) low cumulative average global fatality rates of 0.2% to 0.3%. In mathematical terms: 5% x 5% = 0.25%.

The above translates into this updated diagram:

Governments must know the above but using low hospital admittances would not create adequate fear. High contamination rates do create fear. In the view of politicians, a climate of fear is useful for supporting government policies (eg, face masks, quarantine, social distancing, vaccinations).

It’s likely that the German U-turn relates to next month’s 2021 German federal election. Moreover, German economic growth in 2021 is disappointing (eg, Bloomberg, DW, Reuters). Obviously, the rather draconian German corona measures have caused harm to their economy. Perhaps, the Germans noticed the revival of the Dutch and neighbouring economy. Compared to Germany, Dutch corona measures are easy.

Changing the (eg, German) corona benchmark is a smart move because it allows governments to adapt to reality without (1) acknowledging their mistakes and/or stupidity, and while (2) mitigating legal liability. Some would call it progressive insight but if that were true, this change would have happened many months ago.

Last but not least, Germany is facing the long overdue compromise – rather than a choice – between economy and healthcare. Others will follow this return to common sense.

U-Bahn (It’s not too late for us) – 2018 – by Jonathan Jeremiah
artist, no lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2

Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless stated otherwise.


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