Essentially, risk is our nickname for dealing with uncertainties. Uncertainty is a consequence of Change, including its occurrence, its frequency, its direction (ie, the how, what, when, where, who questions).
It suddenly occurred to me that I’ve never questioned the Why of Change. Change is a default or given in Life. Without Change (or motion), there would (probably) be no Life. Hence, Change is a certain constant regarding the Why question and an uncertain variable for the how, what, when, where or who questions.
Why does Change need uncertainty? Why can’t Change be predictable?
In my view, Change is predictable and even to a large extent. Predictable Change is, however, often called growth (my blogs).
Hence, unpredictable Change equals uncertainties, which are a risk (threat) to us. Probably, this is the reason why humans dislike – or hate – Change. We prefer to ignore that some uncertainties are favourable to us (eg, lottery prize). In our perception, risks are unfavourable and unpredictable uncertainties.
Humans are quite notorious when it comes to adapting to Change. This phenomenon led to a bestselling 1998 booklet and motivational business fable called Who moved my cheese? which was written by Dr. Spencer Johnson (1938-2017).
However, Change, risk and uncertainty are not only present at work. It’s in all other segments of our lives: family, relationship, sport, and study.
Only at work, we calculate such risks as part of enterprise risk management. The notion is that risk management improves company control. Control should improve a company’s survival. Notwithstanding that control, 75% of new companies fail to survive (investopedia).
There’s a difference in a company calculating its risks and a person taking “calculated risks”. Latter is our way of adapting to Change. An organisation calculating its risks will learn that these risks are never complete, never correct, and never reported in time.
It’s safe to say that organisations have more difficulty in adapting to Change than people. The cheese analogy (see above) feels familiar.
“I can live with doubt and uncertainty and not knowing. I think it is much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers that might be wrong. If we will only allow that, as we progress, we remain unsure, we will leave opportunities for alternatives. We will not become enthusiastic for the fact, the knowledge, the absolute truth of the day, but remain always uncertain … In order to make progress, one must leave the door to the unknown ajar.” A quote by Richard P. Feynman (1918-1988), an American theoretical physicist, who received the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1965.
Uncertain Smile (1983) by The The, featuring Jools Holland on piano
artists, artist, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2, Wiki-3
Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless stated otherwise.
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