The title of my blog implies that averages hide the truth. This saying is viewed as accountants’ wisdom (Twitter). The first time that I heard this saying, was indeed in a business school in the late 1970s. It’s also a paraphrase of a proverb: the road to hell is paved with good intentions.
An example is in the Covid discussion: the cumulative average Covid mortality risk is about 0.1% or 1 in 1,000 in most countries, and double (0.2%) in countries like Brazil, UK and USA.
This 0.1% average includes a group of 10-30% of the population with a mortality risk of up to 5% or 1 in 20. This group is called symptomatic virus carriers: they contract the virus, get sick, and may die. The other group of 70-90% has no Covid mortality risk. These people are asymptomatic virus carriers: they contract the virus, do not get sick, and do not even transfer the virus.
From this perspective, a cumulative average Covid mortality risk of 0.1% may be viewed as meaningless because a majority runs no risk and a minority runs a serious risk. Hence, the majority needs and wants its freedom back, and the minority is mourning its fatalities. This also explains the extreme simplification of Covid discussions: either you believe in it or you don’t.
It’s still unclear what is causing the difference between asymptomatic and symptomatic virus carriers. There are indications that some blood types are a risk factor. The ultimate difference is in our immune system: some go crazy and then cause harm to internal organs, while most immune systems work as they should and deal with the virus risk threat effectively.
This fundamental though invisible difference between asymptomatic and symptomatic virus carriers has created political dilemmas in most countries about what and how to prioritise economy, healthcare or civil liberties – let alone the truth about asymptomatic virus carriers.
A recent article in The Lancet, a medical journal, argues that “SARS-CoV-2 elimination, not mitigation, creates best outcomes for health, the economy, and civil liberties”.
Essentially, this article argues that drastic times call for drastic measures which may be derived from a saying by Greek physician Hippocrates: “For extreme diseases, extreme methods of cure, as to restriction, are most suitable” or in Dutch: “zachte heelmeesters maken stinkende wonden“.
Moreover, most people are willing to make serious sacrifices for a short time (eg, empathy), and/but few are willing to do the same for a long time without any prospect for a recovery.
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