Sta Hungry Stay Foolish

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

A blog by Leon Oudejans

The three premises and its conclusion

Most countries are now desperately trying to control the coronavirus pandemic. Their approach is built on the premise that you can control a virus. History should have taught us that such a premise is wrong (eg, Ebola, HIV, influenza, measles). 

A sound virus policy must be based on these 3 premises: (1) viruses are inherent to life and nature, (2) viruses are here to stay – if only as viruses may be older than Earth itself (my 2016 blog), and (3) humans must learn to cohabit with viruses.

These three premises can only lead to one conclusion: we must limit the consequences rather than fight the cause. Some causes are well beyond human control (eg, climate change, viruses). Limiting the consequences is nearly always within our control. Thousands of global scientists tell us how in their Great Barrington Declaration. Also see Wikipedia.

The current panic would not exist if our healthcare system would be based on peak capacity, similar to vital elements of the economy (eg, electricity networks). A decades-long absence of epidemics and/or pandemics have led to political decisions to save money on healthcare. The same can be argued for wars and military defence. 

There was some justification for such political decisions because pandemics used to occur with intervals of several centuries. However, the pace of pandemics seems to be accelerating (my 30 June blog). Probably due to the vast increase in world population and international travelling. 

Expanding healthcare infrastructure will take many years. Hence, that leaves us with two basic options: controlling the cause OR controlling the consequences. I think, feel and believe that the 1st option (ie, cause) is a theoretical one, and that the 2nd option (ie, effect) is a practical one.

Practical treatments of the consequences are (reactivemedicines and/or (preventivevaccines. A vaccine might be “months” away – or may never be successfully developed. Experimental medicines and/or vaccines (like Trump’s treatment with fetal tissue) will be available for a few – or “must be rationed” according to the CEO of manufacturer Regeneron.

There’s another practical treatment of the consequences: social distancing (from the rest of society) of certain groups that are at risk, like the elderly and the sick. This treatment is similar to creating a firebreak in a forest – or a society. Without these firebreaks, an entire population (eg, humans, trees) may become at risk during a “forest fire”.

The current approach to control – or fight – the virus will only increase the duration of the virus. A free razing virus may last several months – until it runs out of humans that can be contaminated (eg, Sweden). Countries that try to control – or fight – the virus should expect a duration of many months (eg, 18 to 24+). That would be devastating to our economies, healthcare and societies.

Forest Fire (1984) by Lloyd Cole and the Commotions

artists, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2

If you don’t slow down I swear that I’ll come round 

And mess up your place let’s go for a spin

Note: all markings (bolditalicunderlining) by LO unless stated otherwise.


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