Sta Hungry Stay Foolish

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

A blog by Leon Oudejans

Covid-19 risk analysis

My analysis below started with a simple pyramid trying to explain the various stages between population (100%) and average corona fatality risk (NL: 0,05%, USA 0,1%), being (i) contaminated without symptoms (ie, asymptomatic), (ii) contaminated with symptoms (ie, symptomatic), (iii) hospitalized, and (iv) ICU. Their likelihood and impact didn’t make sense.

After a restless night, I changed my diagram from a pyramid into a table, including the main Covid-19 risk factors that I had identified a few days ago: immune system and viral load. Three main risk groups are presented: (i) people of 80+ years, (ii) asymptomatic people (ie, contaminated without symptoms) , (iii) symptomatic people (ie, contaminated with symptoms).

I did not include young people as a separate group because they combine strong immune systems with risk averse behaviour. I’m still wondering if this (fourth) group might represent the so-called “superspreaders“. 

Please find below my Covid-19 risk analysis (click to enlarge):

My table assumes that some 80% of all people are asymptomatic, show no symptoms, their virus spreading is “very rare” (see my recent blog), and they show zero corona related fatalities. 

People of 80+ years have been hit hardest. About 4,5% of the population represents some 40% of all corona fatalities – a national average fatality risk of 0,02%

However, that fatality risk mainly applies to those who live(d) in nursing homes and/or retirement homes, following concentration risk of high viral loads.

The fatality rate for people of 80+, living together, is about some 3% (ie, 1 in 33), which comes quite close to the 4,5% of the 1918 Spanish Flu (see my 14 May blog). 

The 3rd group shows a fatality rate for symptomatic people (ie, contaminated with symptoms) that is 100x smaller than people of 80+ years (living together): 0,03%.

The above table also shows, albeit implicitly, the failure of the non-risk based corona approach by many – if not all –  governments.

Don’t Be Stupid (1997) by Shania Twain

artist, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2

Don’t freak out until you know the facts 


Don’t be stupid,

Note: all markings (bolditalicunderlining) by LO unless stated otherwise.


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