For some time, I’ve been considering preparing a table outlining population size, current and estimated Covid-19 deaths, and – most importantly – absolute versus relative numbers. This table shows that the survival rate for Covid-19 is 99.9% at the very least. Still, governments worldwide use the corona fatality rates of 0.01% up to 0.1% for ruining the future of the 99.9%. Why?
Quite some people assume that there is a worldwide conspiracy going on. I have digested on that idea for weeks. In my view, we are overrating the intelligence of our leaders by assuming that they are conspiring against their people (ie, voters!). A much more likely explanation is the infinity of human stupidity (eg, Albert Einstein, Alexandre Dumas, Carlo M. Cipolla, my recent blog).
The current situation is as follows (click on picture to enlarge):
Brazil, UK and USA are now at a fatality rate of 0.06% of their population.
I expect that their rates will increase to 0.1%, following a Kübler-Ross like response of denial, anger, bargaining, depression and – finally – acceptance.
Countries with a less erratic and more controlled corona response show a 50% lower fatality rate (eg, Netherlands, Sweden).
The Chinese corona fatality rates look like fairytales and are probably vastly higher – say 0.01%.
Despite these very favourable survival rates of (at least) 99.9%, the default government corona response is putting more and more companies out of business. This will invoke a spiral of bankruptcies, job losses, unemployment benefits, and – ultimately – mortgage foreclosures. Hence, governments worldwide are ruining the future of the 99.9%.
Moreover, many thousands of deaths (per country!) could have been avoided when a risk management approach had been followed: protect the people with weaker immune systems (eg, the elderly, the sick). Hence, the Peter principle and human stupidity still apply.
Embarrassment (1980) by Madness
artists, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2
Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless stated otherwise.
UPDATE L.O. 3 JAN 2021: ESTIMATED percentages above need to be DOUBLED as governments are counting fatalities CUMULATIVELY instead of on an ANNUAL basis (eg, flu seasons).