Some twenty years ago, an investment banker – overseeing the restructuring of a company – said the following words to me: Small debt is the problem of the debtor; high debt is the problem of the bankers (or creditors). History has proven the validity of his view (eg, Greek government-debt crisis of 2007-2008, the various Argentine debt restructurings).
The various US corona relief packages (eg, CARES, HEROES, PPP) of several trillions (ie, a thousand billion) of dollars should make you wonder who will (really) be paying for this. An early indication is the US$ exchange rate, which has been steadily declining since late March 2020, in comparison with nearly all other major currencies (eg, US$/EUR).
Wiki: “In 1971, Republican President Nixon appointed the then Democrat John Connally as Treasury Secretary. Shortly after taking the Treasury post, Connally famously told a group of European finance ministers worried about the export of American inflation that the dollar “is our currency, but your problem“. Note: bold markings by LO. Note 2: see my 2018 blog for part (1).
The recent policy revisions by the US Federal Reserve are cause for further concern:
– a “broad-based and inclusive goal” for maximum employment;
– the flexible use of a 2% “average inflation targeting”;
– maintaining (very) low interest levels until at least 2024.
The above policy revisions will accelerate the dollar decline as US interest rates will no longer be a policy tool. Both instruments are like the safety valves of an economy: they release economic pressure, either due to overheating or underheating. Closing one safety valve increases the volatility of the other safety valve (ie, US$).
Early 2020, the European Central Bank announced a “review of its monetary policy strategy”, of which results are expected “by the end of the year” (ECB). The ECB response must now also take into account the Fed policy revisions and a declining US$ (eg, Bloomberg).
For the last 700 years, interest went down and debt went up (my February 2020 blog). Considering the continued aftermath of the Great Recession (2007-2012), and the severe economic impact of the Covid-19 recession (2020 onwards), it’s unlikely that interest rates will be allowed to go up. That leaves currency rates as the remaining global monetary policy tool.
The above may easily deteriorate into a global currency war, like the currency war of 2009-2011. Quite likely this will cause an acceleration in (economic) nationalism, and an accelerated (economic) decoupling (eg, China-USA, China-Germany). Both will cause a sharp decline in (economic) globalism.
“In a world with no systems, with chaos, everything becomes a guerilla struggle, and this predictability is not there.” An excerpt from a 2007 TED Talk by Bill Clinton, former US president.
This Town Ain’t Big Enough For Both Of Us (1974) by Sparks
artists, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2
Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless stated otherwise.
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