Recently, my barber made an astute observation: a coronavirus fatality rate of 0.05% equals a coronavirus survival rate of 99.95%. In his view, the 99.95% says more than the 0.05% while both numbers are each other’s reciprocal. Again, the danger of using absolute or relative numbers (see part 1 of this blog series).
On July 4, Donald Trump claimed that 99% of all coronavirus cases are “totally harmless”. An AP fact-check concludes that Trump’s claim is false. While I agree with their conclusion, I disagree with their reasoning. The current U.S. death toll of about 130,000 is some 0.04% of its total population of nearly 330 million people. To date, 99.96% are surviving COVID-19.
Some people may claim that a survival rate of 99.95% argues the same. Well, they would be wrong. My statistical number of 99.95% is without any (moral) judgement. Using that number to claim that the coronavirus is harmless is an immoral and a false judgement.
A harmless virus would not result in horrible deaths or many months of rehabilitation. Such a virus would result in a stay in bed at home for a few days or weeks (eg, food poisoning, flu). Hence, this is the one and only reason why Trump’s claim is false; not the corona statistics.
The coronavirus statistics suggest a “global disease” rather than a pandemic. Unfortunately, this distinction is based on semantics and not warranted by dictionaries. Wiki: “A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of people.”
Hence, COVID-19 does qualify as a pandemic but not a serious one like the 1918 Spanish flu. Far from it, actually. The 1918 Spanish flu was about 90 times worse than COVID-19 (ie, a fatality rate of 1 in 22 people versus 1 in 2000). Does this numerical difference make COVID-19 a hoax?
On May 14, I published my blog: 2019 corona virus versus 1918 Spanish flu. Its first paragraph stated: “Yesterday, an American friend sent me a video on Facebook Messenger: Covid-19 is a HOAX. I replied that I do not agree. Covid-19 is real and results in horrible deaths. I stressed that the micro view is, however, very different from the macro view.”
Mid March 2020, the Dutch PM stated that “we have 50% of the knowledge with which we must make 100% of the decisions” (Dutch gov). Hence, all governments used the proverb: better safe than sorry. The reporting of high absolute numbers (eg, contaminations) created a notion of a high absolute problem in need of a high absolute solution (of 12,000 billion dollars).
Trump is still trying to make his voters believe in contradicting messages: ridiculing the reporting, and minimising the problem, while offering huge economic stimuli to the US voter base. Thus far, his approach has been a recipe for a disaster and bribing voters will not get him re-elected.
Recipe for Disaster (2010) by Morcheeba
artists, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2
Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless stated otherwise.
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