Flattening the curve may feel as the desired strategy of countries and sometimes even as a successful one. However, flattening the curve is the only choice governments have given their limited healthcare capacity, Usually, the best way for controlling viruses (eg, flu) is by letting them rage, like a wildfire. Unfortunately, Covid-19 causes severe medical complications.
Instead of making a diagram myself, I found an excellent and simple one, prepared by CNBC.
There are three main observations:
– the blue graph lasts longer in time;
– the blue graph is bigger than the red graph;
– health care capacity can be increased for a (short) while, unlike the straight line in the diagram.
The first two observations are well-known adverse side effects of flattening a curve. It’s safe to say that the blue damage is bigger than the red.
Interestingly, the above diagram also depicts the difference in (virus containment) approach in USA by red or Republican states and blue or Democratic states:
- Red or Republican states are not flattening the curve and let the virus rage;
- Blue states are flattening the curve and are now facing its extended duration.
As a result, Democratic and Republican states are entering a novel experiment: is flattening the curve the best (virus containment) approach (given limited healthcare capacity) – or not ?
From a strict risk management perspective, any virus containment approach would require:
- apply the red diagram on people until – say – 60 years;
- apply the blue diagram on the elderly (eg, nursing homes) and the sick (eg, hospitals);
- avoid homebound lockdowns following accumulation of aerosols and droplets;
- avoid concentration risk (eg, bars, churches, hospitals, nursing homes, stadions).
The above has consequences for our infrastructure planning, which we may not be willing to accept because individual (zero) risk appetite and collective risk thresholds (eg, healthcare capacity) seldom go hand in hand.
Note 1: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless stated otherwise.
Note 2: no song given the sensitivity of the above subject
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