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24 March 2020

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Bacteria and Viruses | China | Demographics | Health | Society | USA-Trump

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There is a growing mismatch between public awareness and public caution regarding the coronavirus. This mismatch is rooted in the corona fatality risk of less than 1% on average. The more you know about it, the less you worry about it. Mostly, the elderly and the sick are to worry. Therefore, some conservative-right media are promoting deep state conspiracy theories.

The average corona fatality risk of about 1% hides a significant mismatch in risks between the elderly and younger people:

– China: < 50 0,2%, >60 3.6%, >70s 8% and >80s 14.8%.

– Italy: >70s 11.8%, >80s 18.8%, and >90s 21.6%

– sources: Times, FD, my blog (1), my blog (2).

There is also a growing mismatch in the approach to the coronavirus between governments of southern and northern European countries (eg, FD 21 March). The former reproach the latter of not following their draconic measures of a full lockdown on society. The latter argue that a lockdown does not control a virus, and hurts national economies (very) badly.

There is a growing mismatch between the absolute number of Chinese and Italian corona fatalities. A recent article in The Washington Post (see Sunday’s blog) suggests that the Chinese have been deliberately understating the impact of the coronavirus. Allegedly, this Chinese misinformation is the reason why Trump did not act upon early warnings by the U.S. intelligence community.

Moreover, there is also a growing mismatch in health benefits during a lockdown:

(1) lack of physical exercise hurts the body and the brain (brainhq);

(2) lack of exposure to sunlight prevents releasing necessary hormones to the brain and prevents creating required vitamins (healthline);

(3) ultraviolet sunlight kills viruses (eg, BBC, Insider, Wiki).

Finally, a virus is not a tourist but a permanent resident as it will continue lingering on, looking for hosts. Hence, virus contaminations will immediately return after a lockdown ends. The only “benefit” of a lockdown is an expected flattening of the virus contamination curve, which should cause less stress on an existing – and sometimes fragile – health infrastructure.

A different approach seems to make much more sense:

– quarantine elderly and sick people a.s.a.p. (eg, hospitals, nursing homes);