The title of today’s blog is a line from a March 23 tweet by Donald Trump, albeit without his usual capital letters. I must admit that I have been considering the very same thought. I even talked about it with my mother (85). I think, feel and believe that saving the lives of the elderly is indeed worth an economic recession. However, what about a depression?
Trump’s tweet, and its underlying reasoning, is an example of senicide or “the abandonment to death, suicide, or killing of the elderly” (Times-2020, FD-2020, my March 23 blog-1, my March 23 blog-2). Most likely, Trump aims to avoid a period known as the Great Depression (1929-c.1933). In that period, “the only major cause of death that increased was suicide” (History).
There is little doubt there will be a recession following the coronavirus crisis, although its duration might be months rather than years. However, the longer national lockdowns will last, the more likely a depression will hit global economies (eg, BBC, Vox). The virus epidemic in China might be over but a surge in demand for Chinese products will only start after other global economies will start rebooting. In the meantime, China will also bleed.
In my March 2016 blog, I started using a graph which I noticed in 2008 when I was preparing a presentation on economic cycles for a major financial institution.
This 2008 graph was prepared by Charles Hugh Smith, and shows long-term economic cycles. These cycles also feel like waves.
My personal financial planning has been in accordance with this 2008 graph and my related blogs (eg, 2016-03, 2016-12, 2017, 2018, 2019). Hence, once again I am lucky.
Since March 2016, I have been wondering what could – and thus would – trigger the end of the long-term Strauss-Howe generational cycle in 2020. A virus pandemic had never occurred to me. With the knowledge of hindsight, it makes sense that such a global downturn had to relate to global panic.
There appears to be a statistical correlation between economic depressions and pandemics (eg, CDC-2017, NCBI-2016, Reuters-2013, WSJ-2009). Another intriguing thought is that virus pandemics may somehow operate alongside the human generational cycle (eg, 1918 Great Influenza Pandemic).
Short People (1977) by Randy Newman
artist, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2
Short people got no reason
Short people got no reason
Short people got no reason
To live
Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless stated otherwise.
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