Sta Hungry Stay Foolish

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

A blog by Leon Oudejans

When an assassination becomes an act of war

4 January 2020


“On 28 June 1914, the Austro-Hungarian heir Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Sarajevo, leading to the July Crisis. In response, on 23 July Austria-Hungary issued an ultimatum to Serbia. Serbia’s reply failed to satisfy the Austrians, and the two moved to a war footing. A network of interlocking alliances enlarged the crisis from a bilateral issue in the Balkans to one involving most of Europe.” (Wiki) This assassination triggered World War I.

On 3 January 2020, the U.S. assassinated an important Iranian general in Bagdad (Iraq). FT 3 Jan.: “A US Pentagon statement accused Soleimani of “actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq” and said that US forces had “at the direction of the President” taken “decisive defensive action”.”

International media labelled this event as: “the most dramatic escalation in the conflict between the US and Iran (FT), a “massive gamble (Politico)“, “a major escalation in a conflict with Iran (NYT)” and “major escalation [] certain to heighten tensions (WaPo)“. However, this conflict is much more than just Iran versus USA.

There are – once again – major “interlocking alliances” behind the scenes because Iran is usually supported by China, Russia and Turkey. USA could – at least theoretically – rely upon NATO, another “interlocking alliance”. However, the 45th President has criticized NATO as being “obsolete” and has even discussed leaving NATO

At this point in time, it’s difficult imagining NATO involvement. However, an Iranian attack on U.S. soil could or would change that, albeit reluctantly. NATO member Turkey would probably support both sides in this conflict, although with stealthy backing for Iran (eg, Times of IsraelWashington InstituteWiki).

On 2 January 2020, another remarkable incident took place in which the top military commander of Taiwan was killed in a helicopter crash. This incident took place “just days before the island goes to the polls to elect a new president“. This incident has (so far) been labelled as an accident rather than an assassination (eg, BBCCNN, WaPo, Wiki).

My 2016 blog Time & Space: Conflict, Chaos and Change was not optimistic about 2020 given the various angles (eg, business cyclesStrauss-Howe generational theory). It also mentions a 2016 study (Patterns in War Dynamics: WARning 2020) by Ingo Piepers (formerly a member of the Royal Netherlands Marine Corps), which predicted a global military conflict by 2020.

The initial 2020 events are worrisome.

Two Tribes (1984) by Frankie Goes to Hollywood

artists, lyricsvideo, Wiki-1, Wiki-2

When two tribes go to war 

A point is all that you can score 

Score no more! Score no more! 

When two tribes go to war 

A point is all that you can score

Note: all markings (bolditalicunderlining) by LO unless stated otherwise


Framework Posts


Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pin It on Pinterest