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A blog by Leon Oudejans

No collusion?!

27 March 2019

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Thirtyseven (37!) people were indicted following Robert Mueller‘s investigation into the (“alleged“) Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election (eg, Vox, ABC, TIME). Following the release of the still confidential Mueller report on Friday 22 March, it’s now being claimed that there was “no collusion”. Something is wrong in this picture.

Most mainstream media have suddenly switched their stories from “collusion” to “no collusion” which seems rather ridiculous. Either their initial reporting was dubious by jumping the gun, or their current reporting is dubious. Again, something is wrong.

Two politically opposite sources come to a very different conclusion: Louise Mensch (right-wing nationalist) and Bill Palmer (left-wing globalist). In their view, the wording of the 4 page summary, as prepared by the AG/Minister/Secretary for Law and Justice, should only be read in a legal manner. Furthermore, Mueller’s (including sealed) indictments have always been outsourced.

In the above circumstances, it might be best applying the duck test: If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. However, this duck test may contradict the problem-solving principle of Occam’s Razor: “simpler solutions are more likely to be correct than complex ones”. Unfortunately, collusion can be (very) complex (to prove).

Following the 37 indictments, there is ample evidence for concluding that Russia did interfere in the 2016 US presidential election. However, establishing collusion requires intentional and wilful cooperation between parties.

Plausible deniability (my blogs) requires the absence of (audiovisual, electronic or written) evidence showing intentional and wilful cooperation. This may well explain the many tête-à-tête or back channel meetings between parties (eg, NY-Mag, GuardianGuardian).

The real culprit might be the US Electoral College which erodes the one man, one vote principle and benefits the political power of several sparsely populated rural states. Nevertheless, in all but 5 US presidential elections, the result of the popular vote was equal to the Electoral College.

Out of these five US presidential election outliers, three were centuries ago (1824, 1876, 1888) and two were (very) recent: 2000 (G.W. Bush) and 2016 (Trump). These recent ones are worrisome given the (widespread) use of electronic equipment and the opportunities for (large-scale) hacking.

We should never forget that the voter margin in the 2016 US presidential election was extreme, spectacular and unprecedented: 2,868,686 (or 2,1%) more popular votes.

Don’t Speak (1996) by No Doubt

artists, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2

Don’t speak, I know just what you’re sayin’

So please stop explainin’

Don’t tell me ’cause it hurts

Don’t speak, I know what you’re thinkin’

I don’t need your reasons

Don’t tell me ’cause it hurts

Note: all markings (bolditalicunderlining) by LO unless stated otherwise

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