Sta Hungry Stay Foolish

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

A blog by Leon Oudejans

From 2018 Midterms to Trump 2020

The U.S. 2018 Midterm elections are over and both parties claim they have won. Usually such (seemingly) contradicting statements reveal political spin. This time, it feels genuinely true. The Republican GOP increased its Senate majority. The Democratic party gained a House majority. American divisiveness has – once again – reached U.S. Congress.

Even with a 2016-2018 Republican majority in the House and Senate, the 45th President was able to successfully blame the Democrats for anything that went wrong. Blaming them will even be easier as of 7 November 2018. This new situation will benefit Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign.

The main thing that can still go wrong for the 45th President, is the outcome of Robert Mueller‘s probe into (“alleged”) Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections. I have little doubt about this interference in 3 small but crucial U.S. States, given the 2018 statement of James Clapper, the Director of National Intelligence during 2010-2017:

“When you consider that the election turned on 80,000 votes or less in three key states, it stretches credulity to conclude that Russian activity didn’t swing voter decisions, and therefore swing the election.” (Vox-2018)

If Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections would be proven, beyond a reasonable doubt, then the 45th President is in a legal limbo. Should the 2016 outcome be annulled with retroactive effect? The resulting legal and political chaos would benefit the parties responsible for the outcome. They seem to have created a win-win situation for themselves.

Trump’s 2020 re-election is no longer imaginary following the 2018 Midterms outcome. If “the most racist, sexist, homophobic, bigoted president in history” (a Bernie Sanders’ quote) is able to survive the 2018 Midterms then we have been witnessing a historic event of epic proportions.

Nobody really knows how to deal with an intellectually and physically lazy, narcissistic bully with a compulsive lying disorder. Normally, you would either ignore such a person, or ask for medical treatment. Both are difficult in case of the 45th President. China and Europe are in for much more trouble now. The 45th President will be even more determined to put the blame for America’s shortcomings on them.

The international geopolitical vacuum as created by the 45th President must, however, be filled. New regional political alliances are already appearing (eg, Iran-Turkey). Perhaps, these are just provisional and circumstantial. China’s eager to replace the USA as SuperPower may have been premature. Without a European Federal Republic, there is no way that Europe would be stepping up (eg, Reuters).

For the moment, it is just Us and Them for all countries concerned.

Us and Them (1973) by Pink Floyd

artists, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2, Wiki-3

Note: all markings (bolditalicunderlining) by LO unless stated otherwise

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