Sta Hungry Stay Foolish

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

A blog by Leon Oudejans

China – demographic tipping point

25 September 2018

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Yesterday’s blog on “Reeducation returns to China“, contained a line and – intriguing statistic – that kept bugging me: “According to estimates from the Pew Research Center, China may be home to up to 100 million Christians as of 2018, more than the estimated 90 million Chinese Communist Party (CCP) members.” (DW-2018, Pew-2011) Note: italic markings by LO.

While the 11-15 million Uyghur Muslims represent about 1% of the Chinese population of 1,404 million people (Wiki), the 100 million Christians would already represent 7%. According to various sources, the Christian population in China is fastly growing and is “China on course to become ‘world’s most Christian nation’ within 15 years” (eg, Telegraph-2014). 

The pace of Christianity in China reminded me of a June 2018 study: “Experimental evidence for tipping points in social convention” (eg, Phys, Science). Phys: “During the past 50 years, many studies of organizations and community change have attempted to identify the critical size needed for a tipping point, purely based on observation. These studies have speculated that tipping points can range anywhere between 10 and 40%.” Note: italic markings by LO.

Phys-2018: “According to a new paper published in Science, there is a quantifiable answer: Roughly 25% of people need to take a stand before large-scale social change occurs. This idea of a social tipping point applies to standards in the workplace and any type of movement or initiative.” Note: bold and italic markings by LO.

A few days ago, China and the Roman-Catholic Church reached a “provisional agreement” on the appointment of Catholic bishops in China (eg, NPRNYT, WaPo). It’s hard not to see this agreement as a consequence of the fast growth of Christianity in China. For decades, China has tried to stop this development. Hence, most likely the old (political) adage applies: “If you can’t beat them, join them” (Phrases).

The 89.5 million members of the Chinese Communist Party only represent 6.4% of the Chinese population. The “CCP members as a share of the Chinese population” is already declining since 2016 (graph), while the growth of the number of CCP members has nearly stabilized since 2017 (graph). China’s future demographics may, however, obscure these ratios (my 2018 blog).

It’s hard not to be reminded of an unfulfilled 1943 Edgar Cayce prophecy on China: “Cayce promised amazing changes in the country that would lead to more democracy and greater religious freedom. He also suggested that eventually the height of civilization would move from the West to the Chinese people: “And these will progress. For, civilization moves west.” “

King in a Catholic Style (1985) by China Crisis

artists, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2

Note: all markings (bolditalicunderlining) by LO unless stated otherwise

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