Sta Hungry Stay Foolish

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

A blog by Leon Oudejans

Waves (2)

My recent blog on Waves ended with a quote by Edgar Ramirez: “Everything goes in waves. Evolution goes in waves. The ocean goes in waves. Energy goes in waves. Sound travels in waves.” Light seems to travel in waves and particles (eg, Phys-2015). The existence of gravitational waves has only recently been confirmed.

The economy also has a tendency for showing short-term cycles and long-term waves

1. 3-5 years – Kitchin cycle – inventories;

2. 7-11 years – Juglar cycle – machinery;

3. 15-25 years – Kuznets swing – real estate;

4. 45-60 years – Kondratiev wave – technology;

5. 80 years – Strauss–Howe generational theory – war.

This 2008 graph by Charles Hugh Smith was also used in my March 2016 and December 2016 blogs. These cycles have also been mentioned in my 2014 (Dutch) blog.

This 2008 graph was quite accurate in predicting the severity of the Great Recession of 2007-2012. Its accuracy may also apply to its prediction of the next big crisis, which is due around 2021. The Strauss–Howe generational cycle has a habit of coinciding with systemic wars (eg, my 2017 blog, GPF-2017). There are plenty of serious conflicts today.

Conflicts usually relate to the Power dimension of the 7 Belief systems and its 3 beliefs: Money, Politics and Religion. Unfortunately, all 3 ingredients seem abundantly present today. The Knowledge domain (PhilosophyScience, and the Truth) is under pressure for some time. The 7th belief, Love, is in need of Love today (video).

Money is abundant in Europe and USA following the ECB and FED‘s program of quantitative easing which has resulted in extremely low interest levels. China and Russia are busy stopping outbound capital flows. Mid November 2017, George Friedman of GeoPolitical Futures stated that he expects an imminent recession in the US: “It’s been 8 years since the last recession. The US has never gone more than 10 years without a recession.” (eg, CFATwitter). 

The accelerating animosity between Iran (mainly Shia) and Saudi Arabia (mainly Sunni) is rooted in the (Saudi) Arab conquest of Persia and the end of the “Sasanian Empire in 651 and the eventual decline of the Zoroastrian religion in Persia“. Turkey (mainly Sunni) plays an intriguing role by supporting both Sunni Saudi Arabia (eg, Yemen) and Shia Iran (eg, Atlantic, DBWP).

Finally, the Trump-Bannon Revolution of Disruption, Chaos and Destruction (blog 1, blog 2) is creating a vacuum in geopolitics. Some countries may see an opportunity in this vacuum. Others may see a threat and look for new alliances. These are truly uncertain times.

Pass It On (2015) by Douwe Bob – artist, Fblyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2

These are uncertain times (3x)

Keep your memories alive

What seems lost is still inside

Practice love until you master it

And pass it on


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