The 2017 Catalan independence referendum was a disappointment in several ways. A voter turnout of 42% is rather meaningless despite a 92% approval. The regional leader claimed that “Catalonia’s citizens have earned the right to have an independent state in the form of a republic”.
This claim is only rooted in the weird preconditions: “a simple majority, without requiring a minimum turnout”. Hence, one (1) positive vote out of 5.3 million could have been adequate. Nearly everyone lost in this referendum: Catalonia, Spain, the EU – and democracy.
A forbidden referendum and extreme police violence against voters are usually examples of less democratic countries. Such countries can now use the Catalan example for claiming that Western democracy is not much better than the democracy of autocracies.
On 29 September 2017, Martin Arostegui, a “writer, freelance journalist, and a specialist consultant with Risks International (a counter terrorism think tank in Washington)” wrote in GlobalSecurity: “Catalonia’s secessionists, who are trying to organize an independence vote from Spain on Sunday, may be getting aid from Russia as part of the Kremlin’s ongoing strategy to destabilize the European Union, according to European Union analysts.”
For Russia, the Catalan referendum is a win-win situation: (i) a Cat-exit would weaken the EU, and (ii) the Spanish police violence against democratic Catalan voters supports Russia’s claim that Western democracies are not better than Russia’s democracy. Any Western referendum is usually good news for the current industry leader in fake news.
Ever since the Garden of Eden, forbidden fruits equal human temptation. We assume / believe that these fruits are only forbidden because they must taste better. This belief applies to anything, from cigarettes to a referendum. It’s fundamental human psychology.
Spain should have learned from the Garden of Eden – or at least from the 2014 Scottish referendum. In 2012, David Cameron allowed an unconstitutional Scottish referendum. In 2014, 55% of Scots voted against secession. In 2017, the Scottish Nationalist Party received a further heavy blow and lost 21 of its 56 seats. Please also see the 2012 FT article: “Spain, Britain and the forbidden fruits of independence – No marriage can survive by declaring divorce illegal.”
The British secession from the EU may never happen. The taste of Brexit’s forbidden fruits is slowly being replaced by the bitter cost of self-determination: (i) direct cost by EU divorce settlement bill, (2) emerging formerly hidden indirect cost, and (iii) disappearing hidden synergies. This situation is quite similar to leaving your parents house as a student, or a divorce as an adult: less income, higher cost. These principles appear to be rather universal.
Any parent knows that democracy at home has its limits. Parents must ultimately decide in the best interest of their children. However, any parent also knows the consequences of forbidden fruits. Parenting is a delicate balance of showing soft power and avoiding hard power.
Forbidden Fruit (2014) by Kandace Springs & Daryl Hall
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