This Thursday, the EU’s chief negotiator stated that the Brexit negotiations “have reached a state of deadlock, which is very disturbing”. He added: “On this basis, I am not ready to propose to the European Council to open negotiations on the future relationship.” The U.K.’s lead negotiator confirmed that there had only been technical discussions. (Politico).
The current deadlock seems to confirm Mrs May’s 17 January 2017 opinion that “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain” (Guardian, Telegraph). The UK still seems convinced that the EU needs the UK more than vice versa (Independent). Either this view is UK bluff or it’s their belief. I’m afraid that it’s a genuine though foolish belief mixed with some bluff.
On 6 October 2017, journalist Joris Luyendijk gave his – Dutch blunt – view in a Prospect article, after having lived in the UK for 6 years. Mr Luyendijk and I are/were both anglophiles. Still, we both support a British exit from the EU (Brexit). Our reason for supporting Brexit is also similar: the EU will benefit from losing an obnoxious member, like the UK.
Neither Mr Luyendijk nor I, believe that the UK will ever leave. The most likely outcome will be that the UK will ultimately beg the EU to stay (i) once their bluff has been called, and (ii) once reality bites into British’ beliefs. This will probably take many more months.
Mr Luyendijk fears this outcome: “If the rules around Article 50 were bent to allow Britain back in on special terms, then the whole edifice is undermined. Scotland should be let in if it wants, and Northern Ireland too. But England is out and must be kept out—at least until it has resolved its deep internal problems. Call it nation building.” Note LO: italic markings are mine.
I disagree with Mr Luyendijk that the UK must be kept out. Even the famous Chinese general and military strategist Sun Tzu (544 BC – 496 BC) wrote in The Art of War: “When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.” In the forthcoming months, the UK will show these signs of desperation, once they realise their near-fatal miscalculations.
Early 2016, William Hague, “a former British minister for foreign affairs and Conservative Party leader”, suggested an associate EU-membership for Turkey and the UK (eg, Politico, Telegraph). This associate membership might be too late for Turkey given its ever-diverging views from the EU, NATO and – now – the USA (eg, visa services, US ambassador).
I do not believe the EU will allow the UK back on its previous full membership terms. Out is out. Or, in Mrs May’s words: “Brexit means Brexit“. Else regions like Catalonia, Flanders, Northern Ireland and Scotland may get their independence hopes up too high.
An associate membership may resemble an EEA membership (eg, Norway) and would allow for the EU’s ongoing expansion quest while softening the diplomatic blows to neighbouring countries.
I Keep Forgettin’ (1982) by Michael McDonald – artist, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2
I keep forgettin’ we’re not in love anymore
I keep forgettin’ things will never be the same again
I keep forgettin’ how you made that so clear
I keep forgettin’, darlin’
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