During 2015, I wrote several blogs on the diesel engine emissions scandal at Volkswagen Audi Group: part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4 and part 5. My 6 October 2015 blog predicted that the VW emissions scandal would become a pivotal point for electric cars. In 2016 and 2017, several countries have announced a ban on selling fossil fuel cars: China (timing t.b.d.), France (by 2040), India (by 2030), Norway (by 2025), and UK (by 2040).
The main disadvantage of an electric car is its dismal driving range. The top 10 of electric cars with the “longest” driving range is quite revealing: from 150 to 539 km – or 93 to 335 miles (source). The ultimate solution will be a power grid woven into the main roads that either sells electricity to – or buys electricity from – electric cars (see my 2017 blog).
In the meantime, hydrogen powered cars may fill the gap between fossil fuel and electric cars. Digital Trends: “Driving a hydrogen-powered car has some ups and downs. On the plus side, you get the green benefits of an EV without the range anxiety, because you can refill the car with more hydrogen. On the minus side, hydrogen refueling stations are rare – at least for the moment. It’s also challenging to obtain hydrogen in a way that’s both green and efficient.”
Digital Trends: “With the recent arrival of the Honda Clarity, there are now three automakers offering cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells. The first was the Hyundai ix35 in early 2013, and then came the Toyota Mirai — and more than a dozen other automakers have fuel cell vehicles in development.” In 2018, Hyundai will introduce an emission-free hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) which has a target driving range of 580 km (360 miles) on a single charge (JD Powers).
The existing worldwide number of fossil fuel cars was estimated on 1 billion in 2010 and is expected to grow to 1.5 billion in 2025 and 2 billion in 2040 (eg, GCR, HuffPost, WEF). These numbers are somewhat similar to mobile phones: 1 billion in 2012, and a record number of 1.5 billion smartphone annual shipments in 2016 (eg, eMarketer, Strategy Analytics, Telegraph). Harvesting precious metals from cars will become an industry as in mobile phones.
There is another analogy that bugs me. In the late 1980s, the sale of vinyl records declined sharply following the success of the compact disc. Around 2000, vinyl records went almost extinct (eg, Forbes). Vinyl record sales are once again booming (eg, clubs, DJs, nostalgia).
The future closing of oil refineries may however never happen if and when electricity grids are as vulnerable as they now appear to be. The Guardian, 6 September 2017: “Hackers attacking US and European energy firms could sabotage power grids”. Or Washington Post, 12 June 2017: “Russia has developed a cyberweapon that can disrupt power grids, according to new research”.
The Automotive industry was once built on human emotion (ie, love). Americans and Europeans still fear self-driving cars (eg, Fortune, GM, IJ, Newsmax). Hacking electricity grids may even cause an early death of EVs. Nostalgia for fossil fuel driven cars may return sooner than we think.
Nostalgia (1984) by David Sylvian – artist, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2
The sound of waves in a pool of water
I’m drowning in my nostalgia
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