The angry response of the Russian President following the shooting of a Russian fighter plane by Turkey was quite revealing: he alleged that Turkey had helped bankroll Isis through oil sales. The chairman of the foreign affairs committee of Russia’s lower house, tweeted that Turkey’s economic losses as a result of the deterioration of relations with Moscow would “exceed tenfold the profits of those who have established a profitable oil business with Isis”. The Russian foreign minister warned Russians not to travel to Turkey. He said the terrorist threat in Turkey was no less than in Egypt. (FT)
It’s important to realise that the former Ottoman Empire (today’s Turkey) attacked the Caucasus during World War 1. The main objective of the Ottoman Empire was the recovery of its territories in the Caucasus. These regions were captured by Russia after the Russo-Turkish War (1877-78) (Wiki).
There are at least 2 other major conflicts between (Christian) Russia and (Muslim) Turkey: the 1915 Armenian genocide by the Ottoman Empire and the Turkish military control over the Straits zone (ie, the Dardanelles, the Sea of Marmora, and Bosphorus). Also see my related 2015 blogs of 6 June,6 August, 19 October, 25 November.
Shortly after the shooting of the Russian fighter plane, Turkey called for a special NATO meeting. This further infuriated the Russian President: “Instead of immediately getting in contact with us, the Turkish side immediately turned to their partners with Nato to discuss this incident, as if it was us who downed a Turkish jet and not vice versa”. (FT)
The NATO partners must however be quite embarrassed with this assertive Turkish military response as NATO usually shows limited to no (military) response to the increasing Russian provocations in NATO territory (CNN). FT: Diplomats said Turkey’s request for a Nato discussion on Tuesday did not formally invoke an “Article 4” emergency meeting, a more serious trigger to consider a threat to its territorial integrity or stability. The alliance said it was “monitoring the situation closely”.
Turkey is a NATO member since 1952 but its membership is more and more criticised since its invasion and occupation of the northern part of the island of Cyprus in 1974. Turkey’s stance on the Cyprus issue is an embarrassment to NATO as it’s rather difficult for NATO to condemn Russia for annexing Crimea or setting up puppet states in the occupied Georgian provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia when a NATO member is guilty of similar behaviour. (source)
Russia’s main problem with Turkey is yet another one. Both countries want to restore their former Empire. Russia cannot and will not allow a new Ottoman Empire emerging in their back yard.
FT 3 March 2015: “Only three years ago. Ahmet Davutoglu, then foreign minister and now prime minister, exulted in Turkey becoming the “master, leader and servant” of a new Middle East. But the country’s ties with allies and neighbours alike have been strained — whether over Mr Erdogan’s personalised style of diplomacy, Ankara’s support for Islamists elsewhere or the knock-on effects of a feud between Islamic factions inside Turkey itself”.
Turkey has now given Russia a perfect excuse for revenge. The Russian warning not to travel to Turkey will have a huge impact as Russians are #2 in Turkish tourism (Wiki) with some 4 million people. An economically weakened Turkey may be more willing to accept Russian demands on control over the Bosporus (eg, 6 June blog, Carnegie, GlobalSecurity). The geopolitical aftermath of the 24 November 2015 Russia-Turkey incident may last for decades.
Carly Simon – You’re so vain (1972) – artist, lyrics, Wiki-1, Wiki-2
Alanis Morissette – You Oughta Know (1995) – artist, lyrics, Wiki-1, Wiki-2
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