Part 2 of this blog on Russia vs Turkey basically ended with this question: “If this decision was taken by rational people, what was their true aim???” I realised that I made an important assumption in that question: rational people. Yet I assumed that this assumption would be justified as it’s entirely logical and rational. For a moment, I ignored Mr Eugene Lewis Fordsworthe who once said that the assumption is the mother of all mistakes (also see my 26 May 2015 blog).
My Google search (on the why question) revealed an intriguing November 26 article in the Guardian. This article brings a compelling and convincing case based upon the assumption that the decision was taken by irrational people. Actually, I am now in serious doubt as their assumption (irrational) may me more plausible than mine (rational). The consequences of that may be far reaching.
My doubt is also related to the fact that my assumption on their behaviour was ultimately based on my own behaviour. I could not imagine that people in their position could act irrationally as I would not do that myself. I projected my own logic on theirs. Also see my 16 April 2015 blog.
Worse, even my own blogs of 18 February 2015 (Victim role – politicians, bankers and corporate bosses), 14 April 2015 (Power and abuse) and 29 October 2015 (Politics versus Population), support the view that we may deal with irrational people in the case of both the Russian and Turkish leaders.
The Guardian: There are striking similarities between Erdoğan’s Turkey and Putin’s Russia, not least their ability and propensity to move conflicts into the covert arena. While Russia’s intervention in Syria may have cynical intent, the Turks are acting in support of their national interests in Syria with equal ruthlessness.
The Guardian: As the analysts Fiona Hill and Kemal Kirişci have put it, “the personalities and political styles of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian president Vladimir Putin seemed to complement if not mirror each other” such that these “similarities … have now come into play in a dramatic way.”
The Guardian: Analyst Pavel Felgenhauer has suggested that “further dogfights are possible during which Russian planes will attack Turkish planes in order to protect our bombers. Sea battles between the Turkish and Russian fleets are possible”. Also see my similar prediction in part 2 of this blog.
The Guardian: This is a conflict that Ankara triggered and while it is being managed it is not going to go away. Nor is it just going to become another chapter in the histories of Russo-Ottoman rivalry. Expect to see this play out in snide, deniable, but nonetheless bitter actions for months to come.
The Turkish President needs a plausible enemy to unite his own people and possibly even far beyond that. Fear is an excellent manipulator of human behaviour. The Russian President largely needs the same. This is a very risky path. Two paranoid dictators manipulating their population to achieve their dreams: the restoration of the Soviet Empire and the Ottoman Empire. Only one stands a chance.
Sparks – This Town Ain’t Big Enough For Both Of Us (1974) – artists, lyrics, Wiki-1, Wiki-2
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