Recent developments between EU and Turkey are confusing. I cannot imagine that the Turkish President has a sincere interest in joining the EU as that act would strip some of his authoritarian powers. And I cannot imagine that the majority of the EU population would ever agree with 100 million Turkish Muslims joining a Christian dominated EU. The delicate balance of powers in Europe would seriously shift. So what’s really going on?
I think and feel that a lot of this has to do with Russia. Turkey has become an outcast in NATO (e.g., Cyprus, Greece), faces regional conflicts (Kurds, Syria), and is a reluctant applicant of a true EU membership (e.g., EU harmonisation). Nevertheless, the Turkish fear over its Russian “neighbour” (e.g., Armenia, Bosporus, Black Sea Fleet, WW-II), may even be stronger than the sum of all other fears. It’s easier to manipulate a divided Europe than an determined, expanding “neighbour”. Also see my blogs of June 6 (Bosporus) and August 6 (Kurdistan).
Considering the Turkish expertise in doing business, the accommodation of refugees in their vast country will no doubt become a profitable one. The abolishment of European visum restrictions would be an excellent opportunity for the Turkish government to get rid of domestic critics. Even the Turkish Kurds may need to seek a new future in Europe. It seems a win-win situation for the Turks.
I am afraid that even a discussion about admitting Turkey into the EU is too much for the European Union. It will unleash strong sentiments in various parts of the EU. Exits become more realistic than ever before (e.g., Brexit, Grexit). The only good thing that may happen is that the errors of Helmut Kohl and Francois Mitterand will finally be repaired: big is not beautiful – less is more. Hence, I sympathise with the ideas of Guy Verhofstadt in his new (Dutch language) book on Europe.
I think and feel that the current Turkish situation is a backlash from its 2012 ambitions to “become the “master, leader and servant” of a new Middle East. But the country’s ties with allies and neighbours alike have been strained — whether over Mr Erdogan’s personalised style of diplomacy, Ankara’s support for Islamists elsewhere or the knock-on effects of a feud between Islamic factions inside Turkey itself”. (FT 3 March 2015)
Tensions have spread across the Atlantic as well as the Gulf. Gone are the days — also in 2012 — when President Barack Obama named Mr Erdogan as one of five international leaders with whom he had “bonds of trust”. [ ] Mr Erdogan himself appears puzzled by his country’s lack of friends. Last month, he said if Turkey appeared isolated it was because other leaders were jealous, although he did not say of what. “When Obama came to office we got along very well,” he added. “Afterwards things began to change and I don’t know why.” (FT 3 March 2015)
In my view, the problem with Turkey lies in its path of self isolation. FT 3 March 2015: “We do not care about being alone in the world . . . What we care about is what our people think about us.” So said Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish president, as he flew back from a trip abroad.
Turkey’s lack of friends and its increasing number of enemies constitutes a new geo-political threat. The EU and NATO should prevent Turkey from going overboard but not at all costs.
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