Today leading Muslim scholars, academics and faith groups will publish a declaration in Istanbul explaining why 1.6 billion Muslims around the world have a religious duty to help tackle global climate changes (Politico). Roman Catholic Pope Francis released his ecological footprint, Laudato si’, on 24 May 2015. On June 8, the G7 announced their efforts to reduce the impact of climate change. It’s quite remarkable to see consensus between Politics, Religion and Science.
Most of the 8 scientific reasons for climate changeare well beyond human control, being: (1) strength of the sun, (2) changes in the Earth’s orbit, (3) changes in the orientation of the Earth’s axis of rotation, (4) quantity of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, (5) carbon dioxide content of the oceans, (6) plate tectonics, (7) ocean currents and (8) vegetation coverage on the land. Also see my May 9 blog on Climate change – trust but verify. Nowadays, there is however little doubt that greenhouse gases are responsible for global warming (see this great Bloomberg infographic).
The main difference that we perceive is the pace of global warming. Yet that number is based upon an interval of 135 years while the Earth is approximately 4.5 billion years old. From a statistical point this sample might be meaningless. Moreover, Earth’s ecological system has always been able to counter some threats. Also see the ‘climate hiatus’ article in Science magazine of 14 August 2015.
Scientists have determined that we are currently in an interglacial period of (at least) the 5th Ice Age, called the Holocene. The next glacial period is expected in some 80,000 years from now. Previous interglacial periods have caused the same phenomena as we see now, like melting polar caps. One could even argue that there is no (new) climate change as climates have always changed and will always change. Also see my June 22 blog on Ice Ages and the development of (human) life.
Evolutionary scientists have linked the rise and fall of previous Homo versions to (inter)glacial periods of the current Ice Age. Based on this link, I’m skeptic that Homo Sapiens (i.e., us) will survive the next glacial period of this Ice Age. Also see my July 8 blog on Transhumanism and Evolution and my June 22 blog on Ice Ages and the development of (human) life.
The current migration from Africa to Europe is even ironic in a certain way as Europe is quite unlikely to survive a new glacial period. It’s quite likely that the successor of Homo Sapiens will once again originate in Africa and swarm out to other parts of the Earth when the new interglacial period will be announcing itself. Also see my April 26 blog called Out of Africa.
Remarkably, our human future has always been in Africa, near the equator. Human investments near the equator (e.g., knowledge) may be very helpful to give the next Homo species a head-start. On the other hand, it might also delay / postpone the development of such species as Homo Sapiens is likely to fight any competition. Also see my August 13 blog called Who’s afraid of whom?
The forthcoming glacial period of the current 5th Ice Age cannot be avoided by human action. Yet perhaps Homo Sapiens may one day have the power (i.e., knowledge, money, tools) to delay this glacial period. Moreover, the current accelerated pace of global warming may even be in our best interest as it might even be delaying the next glacial period. However, it may also accelerate the next glacial period. Nobody seems to know (see NYT article).
Nevertheless, it is the only relevant question, from whatever angle you look at it: is ‘global warming’ accelerating OR delaying the forthcoming glacial period of the current 5th Ice Age?? The answer to that question should really determine our course of action.
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